Even after being indicted in two separate criminal cases, former President Donald Trump has maintained a commanding lead over his Republican rivals in national polls of registered voters.
But those same polls are showing that if Trump were to run head-to-head against the presumed 2024 Democratic nominee, President Joe Biden, the two candidates would be in a statistical dead heat.
Although much could change between now and the presidential election, political insiders and analysts told The Epoch Times that current polling provides valuable insights into how the 2024 contest is taking shape.
They also say this election campaign already has secured a prominent place in U.S. history. Both major parties’ leading candidates are embroiled in unprecedented controversies, reducing the visibility of their primary election challengers.
Those simmering scandals will ultimately affect not only polling but also could greatly influence who wins the 2024 election. Many voters believe the result will prove pivotal for the future of democracy in America, regardless of partisan politics.
Turning Point
“In my wildest dreams, I would have never thought that, in the year 2023, we’d be dealing with what we’re dealing with,” Mike Allen, an attorney, former prosecutor and judge in Cincinnati, Ohio, told The Epoch Times.
Allen, a conservative who hosts a popular political talk show on radio station 700 WLW, said he senses that House Republicans’ recent revelations about Biden’s alleged foreign influence-peddling are starting to break through to average citizens.
“We may have reached a turning point,” Allen said on June 23.
That was just after House Republicans revealed IRS whistleblowers’ allegations that the Department of Justice (DOJ) put up roadblocks during an investigation of Biden’s son, Hunter Biden.
The president’s son allegedly failed to properly report millions of dollars in income from foreign sources but later paid taxes on that income.
The president has declined to answer reporters’ questions on this topic, but Attorney General Merrick Garland denies that the DOJ interfered with the IRS’s probe.
But following last week’s plea deal that could allow the younger Biden to avoid time behind bars, many people now perceive that the U.S. justice system appears to be “weaponized” for the persecution of political enemies such as Trump, Allen said. In contrast, free passes seem to be given to people such as the Bidens, who have powerful political connections.
“I do federal criminal work … and almost no one who ends up in federal court does not go to prison,” Allen said. “The feds don’t indict anyone unless it’s tied up in a pretty yellow bow … and they’ve got ya.”
But you don’t have to be a lawyer to see that Hunter Biden appears to have been offered a “sweetheart deal,” Allen said.
“People are angry about the two-tiered system of justice we have in this country. And that’s never happened here before,” Allen said. “People are mad.”
They don’t like seeing that the Biden family has been reaping millions of dollars “for no apparent reason,” Allen said.
He and others think that Trump is doing well in the polls partly because of backlash against the perceived injustices.
Solidified Views Drive Polls
But New York-based Democratic strategist David Carlucci sees the polls as indicators of dual forces: Trump’s unshakable appeal to his most loyal supporters, as well as the unflinching disdain of his detractors.
“With little change in the national polls post-Trump’s indictment, it is clear that most Americans have already pledged allegiance to or against the former President,” Carlucci told The Epoch Times. “Even after being the first federally indicted president in U.S. history, Donald Trump’s base stands firmly behind him.”
According to the RealClear Politics (RCP) average as of June 24, Trump was outpacing his nearest Republican challenger, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, by more than 30 percentage points. All other GOP presidential hopefuls ranked in the single digits.
Likewise, RCP shows Biden is the clear frontrunner for his party’s nomination. The Democrat president holds a whopping 50-point margin over environmental lawyer Robert F. Kennedy Jr., even though his family’s name carries considerable cachet. His father was an attorney general, and his uncle was President John F. Kennedy; both were assassinated in the 1960s.
Kennedy, DeSantis and all the other 2024 presidential hopefuls are having difficulty getting much notice thus far. That’s because the Biden and Trump controversies are consuming all of the political “oxygen.”
Politics ‘Frozen’ in June?
Conservative commentator Dick Morris, in a Newsmax column, wrote: “American politics have stopped, frozen by the indictment of Trump for no good reason and the deterioration of Joe Biden.”
But Special Counsel Jack Smith has said that federal prosecutors followed the highest ethical standards as they pursued the Florida case against Trump.
Meanwhile, Morris was referring to continuing concerns about Biden appearing disoriented at times during public functions; Biden’s supporters counter that his physician has declared he is physically and mentally fit for the rigors of the presidency.
Still, concerns over both Trump and Biden have overshadowed the normal political cycle, Morris said.
“In theory, this week should have been when the nominating process in each party heated up as candidates took to the runway to launch their campaigns,” Morris wrote on June 24. “But there was zero energy for them.”
He argues that circumstances have paralyzed challengers to both Trump and Biden.
All current or potential Democrat candidates “will have to swear that they simply love the emperor’s new clothes. No one can step out and say that he doesn’t have any. Anyone who dares speak these words will be cast out and be doomed,” Morris said.
On the Republican side, “there is room for only two viewpoints: That Trump is guilty or that he is innocent,” Morris said.
“DeSantis [and others] can’t split the difference and say, ‘Trump is the innocent victim of the Deep State and is being persecuted by the Democrats, but I’m running against him anyway,’” Morris wrote.
This leaves Trump’s GOP opponents with nowhere to stand, he said.
DeSantis Could Climb
Allen said it’s a shame that DeSantis’ campaign has not soared; he likes what DeSantis has accomplished as Florida’s governor. “You have to keep in mind that it’s really early,” Allen said.
DeSantis’ biggest weakness: “He’s not real good on the stump. He just doesn’t seem real comfortable. But I’m sure that he’ll probably grow into that,” Allen said.
Most callers to Allen’s talk show are pro-Trump. But Allen thinks DeSantis has an opportunity to appeal to Trump supporters who oppose “woke” social policies.
DeSantis is “the epitome of anti-wokeness,” Allen said, “and people are fed up with all of that garbage. They see DeSantis isn’t afraid to stand up against it…I think people admire that. I know they admire that.”
The Florida governor has signed bills that prohibit schoolchildren from being taught about transgenderism and sexual orientation at young ages, for example. Trump also has said he opposes such “indoctrination” of children; both candidates have objected to allowing biological males to compete against females in sports.
In contrast, Biden has railed against such “anti-transgender” policies. That stance appeases his supporters on the far left while risking alienating those who are more moderate. Trump also faces a challenge in wooing those same voters who are stuck in the political middle.
Biden, Trump Both ‘Unfavorable’
A Trump-Biden hypothetical matchup showed Trump with only a 0.5-percent lead–statistically insignificant considering that many polls included in the RCP average have margins of error of about 3 percent.
“Polls overall are great forecasts for an election but are no crystal ball,” Carlucci said. “Plenty can and will happen before November 2024, which will mold the election’s results. This cannot be closer to the truth with a former president indicted by the federal government.”
Trump is accused of crimes for improper use of documents—classified government records in a Florida federal case and business records in a New York state case.
Meanwhile, Biden also faces a probe over his own handling of government documents–an investigation that pales in comparison to the revelations coming from Republicans in Congress. They are investigating the Biden family’s foreign business dealings, including an allegation that a foreign national paid Biden at least $5 million in exchange for a policy decision while he was vice president.
Allen finds the emerging scandal shocking. “If that’s true, that’s selling out your country,” Allen said.
Although Allen has been critical of Trump at times, he said some voters may decide that “Trump with all of his warts is better than a guy who has allegedly taken money from foreign governments.”
“And again, there is not proof beyond a reasonable doubt of that yet,” Allen said about the allegation against Biden. “But there sure as hell is probable cause to do an unbiased investigation, and I don’t think that the Department of Justice can do it.”
He says Congressional subpoenas seem to be prying loose valuable information so that effort should continue.
Will ‘Unfazed’ Supporters Stray?
Meanwhile, Larry Snowden, president of the nation’s largest pro-Trump group, Club 47 USA, told The Epoch Times that a groundswell of support seems to be building for Trump. That’s not despite his legal troubles, but because of them, Snowden said.
“The people I talk to know that President Trump is being treated unfairly with indictments and legal challenges,” he said. “They know that it’s all just massive election interference efforts, and President Trump’s supporters just become more energized and supportive of him when they see the unfair treatment.”
While Carlucci concedes that Trump’s base so far appears stalwart if Trump faces additional charges, “the reality of the situation might sway the thoughts of currently unfazed voters,” Carlucci said. Trump remains under investigation in two other probes relating to his reaction to Biden being declared the winner of the 2020 presidential race.
Allen counters: “I think that Trump’s base, they don’t believe that he’s guilty of anything, and they’re gonna stick with him no matter what.”
Legal troubles notwithstanding, if Trump becomes the GOP’s nominee and heads into a 2024 rematch with Biden, Trump “faces much greater difficulty” than in the Republican primary, Carlucci said.
Mixed Messages in Polls
“It is unknown if Donald Trump can take in any more supporters than he already has,” Carlucci said, referring to findings of some pollsters, including those at Quinnipiac University.
In March, prior to Trump’s first indictment in New York, 57 percent of Americans thought criminal charges should disqualify Trump from seeking the presidency again, Quinnipiac reported. Yet 62 percent believed the prosecution was politically motivated, Quinnipiac said, noting people’s “mixed signals” about Trump.
Quinnipiac’s latest poll, released June 14, after Trump’s federal indictment in Florida, found “support among Republican and Republican-leaning voters remains largely unchanged.”
However, the poll also found that more than half of registered voters looked unfavorably at both Biden and Trump. Biden registered 52 percent unfavorable; Trump’s unfavorable rating was even worse, at 59 percent.
Snowden, the Florida-based Trump advocate, says it’s important to consider that many polls rely on registered voters instead of “likely voters,” who could serve as more accurate barometers of how a candidate would fare in an election.
“Rasmussen is the only major poll looking at likely voters,” he said, and Rasmussen shows Trump with a 6 percent lead over Biden.
To Snowden, that signals “Trump is comfortably ahead of Biden right now.”
He thinks Trump can expand that lead with his famous rallies, which Snowden predicts will be ramping up despite the distractions of Trump’s legal woes.
“No other candidate, Republican or Democrat, draws anywhere near the huge crowds that President Trump draws at his rallies. His rallies attract large numbers of Independent voters,” Snowden said. “Rallies connect Trump directly with the people, and the fake news media is powerless to filter and distort.”
Mining for Moderates
Carlucci counters that Biden seems to be succeeding with his agenda, and, leading up to the 2024 election, he has another year in office to score accomplishments he can tout.
Conservative commentator and former House Speaker Newt Gingrich agrees that Biden should not be underestimated. He’s a stronger candidate than his sometimes-confused, bumbling public appearance might suggest, Gingrich said in a recent column.
And Trump has considerable liabilities to overcome, legal issues aside, Allen said.
Some people who voted for Trump in 2016 did not vote for him in 2020 because they were turned off by “some of the outlandish things he says,” Allen said.
“He has to win back those voters … but sometimes I think he thinks that’s all he needs is his base. And we found out in 2020 that’s not the case. He needs to appeal to moderate voters,” Allen said.
Still, Trump or another conservative candidate may enjoy an advantage in the 2024 election. American attitudes have shifted toward social conservatism—reaching the highest level in about a decade, Gallup said in a report released June 8.
Still, Independent voters hold the key to victory for either major party because Independents now represent America’s largest voting bloc. About 41 percent of voters called themselves Independent last year, 28 percent said they were Democrat, and another 28 percent said they were Republican, according to a 2022 Gallup poll.
Agreement on a Couple Points
Meanwhile, Quinnipiac’s most recent poll shows that all voters—Republican, Democrat, and Independent alike—are most concerned about two things: the economy and “preserving democracy in the United States.”
This finding demonstrates “a rare show of unanimity in a country rattled by discord,” polling analyst Tim Malloy said in a Quinnipiac news release.
“There is a substantial amount of concern among Republicans, Democrats, and Independents over the preservation of the nation’s very bedrock: democracy. The older the respondent, the deeper the concern,” Malloy said.
Based on that trend, the candidate who presents the most convincing case for preserving democracy and improving the American economy should win in 2024.
Allen says voters of all stripes seem to sense the import of the next presidential election.
“The future of our country is at stake here,” he said.
