Trump’s Comeback Scenarios

Paradoxically, the best legal strategy he has is to win the presidential election and, most likely, pardon himself.

Donald Trump is currently leading among Republican voters in the race for the U.S. presidency. The former president has a 54% approval rating among members of his party, well ahead of Ron DeSantis, who is around 13.5%.

The indictments Trump faces in Georgia and New York are likely to hit him a little harder in the run-up to the election on Nov. 5, 2024. Trump can still be a candidate and win, even if he is convicted and goes to jail. Paradoxically, the best legal strategy Trump has is to win the presidential election and, most likely, pardon himself.

On the other hand, President Joe Biden faces a very complicated election scenario. His approval rating is at only 41% and his disapproval rating at 53.7%. Republicans in Congress want to open an investigation and impeachment process against him in relation to his son, Hunter, who allegedly took advantage of his connections to do business abroad.

President Biden is also busy dealing with domestic issues, including the possibility that Congress will not pass the federal budget and the federal government will shut down in 40 days. The president also faces two problems involving Mexico that are on the minds of Republicans: the rise in fentanyl deaths and record numbers of immigrants. Abroad, he is indirectly confronting Russia over the conflict in Ukraine, and the trade war with China continues.

It would be historic for a president to return to the White House after being defeated in his reelection bid and to arrive laden with criminal indictments. But the big question is what will happen to the U.S. – Mexico relationship. Here are some hints:

Nearshoring will continue. Trump will maintain the relocation of production chains established in China, and Mexico will continue to benefit.

Immigration policy will get tougher. The debate in Washington surrounding rebuilding the wall will return, but above all, the refugee policy that has prompted many foreigners to seek asylum in the U.S. will be tightened. Mexico will face the spotlight for its efforts to stem this disorderly migration flow. Considering the threat of a Trump victory, 2024 could break all records for migration flows through Mexico to the U.S.

There will be an offensive against the cartels. Pressure to activate U.S. military force against Mexican criminal organizations will increase in the White House and on Capitol Hill. There will be increased pressure to arrest and extradite the Chapitos and members of the Sinaloa and Jalisco New Generation Cartel.

What is certain is that Mexico will return as an issue in the U.S. election campaign. The good news is if Trump wins, Mexican diplomacy is experienced in negotiating with a crude man like him.

Editor’s note: The original article included this final note: “Strategic agenda: On Sept. 28 and Sept. 29, the National Security Seminar was successfully held at the National Defense College. This forum, which brought together civilian and military specialists, is a leader in the exchange of ideas for the future of Mexico in a privileged academic space.”