US Faces Strategic Defeat in Geopolitical War in Gaza

One hundred years after the Arab Revolt (1916-1918) against the ruling Ottoman Turks amidst the impending defeat of Germany and the Triple Alliance in World War I, another armed uprising by the Arabs has erupted. 

This time around it’s against Israeli occupation, in the backdrop of the looming defeat of the United States and NATO in the Ukraine War — presenting a spectacle of history repeating unabridged. 

The Ottoman Empire disintegrated as a result of the Arab Revolt. Israel too will have to vacate its occupied territories and make space for a state of Palestine, which of course, will be a crushing defeat for the U.S. and marks the end of its global dominance. It is reminiscent of the Battle of Cambrai in Northern France (1918) where Germans — surrounded, exhausted and with disintegrating morale amidst a deteriorating domestic situation — faced the certainty that the war had been lost, and surrendered.  

The torrential flow of events through the past week and a half have been breathtaking, starting with a phone call made by Iran’s President Sayyid Ebrahim Raisi to the Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman on Oct. 11 to discuss a common strategy toward the situation following the devastating attack by the Islamic Resistance Movement, Hamas, against Israel four days before. 

Just before that, in a powerful statement, Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei emphasized that: 

“From the military and intelligence aspects, this defeat (by Hamas) is irreparable. It is a devastating earthquake. It is unlikely that the (Israeli) usurping regime will be able to use the help of the West to repair the deep impacts that this incident has left on its ruling structures.” 

(See my blog Iran warns Israel against its apocalyptic war.)

A senior Iranian official told Reuters that Raisi’s call to the crown prince aimed to “support Palestine and prevent the spread of war in the region. The call was good and promising.” 

Having forged a broad understanding with Saudi Arabia, Iran’s Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian held discussion with his Emirati counterpart, Sheikh Abdullah bin Zayed, during which he called upon Islamic and Arab countries to extend their support to the Palestinian people, emphasizing the urgency of the situation.

Also late last week, Amir-Abdollahian embarked on a regional tour to Iraq, Lebanon, Syria and Qatar for a couple of days to coordinate with the various resistance groups. Notably, he met Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah in Beirut and Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Doha. 

Amir-Abdollahian told the media that unless Israel stopped its barbaric air strikes on Gaza, an escalation by the Resistance is inevitable and Israel could suffer a “huge earthquake,” as Hezbollah is in a state of readiness to intervene. 

Meanwhile, Tehran has delivered a strong message to Tel Aviv via the U.N. that it will have to intervene if the Israeli aggression on Gaza persists, Axios reported last weekend, citing two diplomatic sources. 

Simply put, Tehran will not be deterred by the deployment of two U.S. aircraft carriers and several warships and fighter jets off the shores of Israel. 

Last weekend, on Sunday, White House National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan acknowledged that the U.S. couldn’t rule out that Iran might intervene in the conflict.

In the meantime, while Iran was coordinating with the resistance groups on the military front, China and Saudi Arabia shifted gear on the diplomatic track. 

On Oct. 12, as U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken was heading for Arab capitals after talks in Tel Aviv, seeking help to get the hostages released by Hamas, China’s Special Envoy on the Middle East Zhai Jun contacted the Saudi deputy minister for political affairs, Saud M. Al-Sati, on the Palestine-Israel situation, particularly the humanitarian crisis unfolding in Gaza.

The contrast couldn’t be sharper. 

On the same day, an extraordinary event took place in the Chinese Foreign Ministry when the Arab envoys in Beijing sought a group meeting with Special Envoy Zhai Jun to underscore their collective stance that a “very severe” humanitarian crisis has emerged following Israel’s attack on Gaza and “the international community has the responsibility to take immediate actions to ease the tension, promote the resumption of talks for peace, and safeguard the Palestinian people’s lawful national rights.” 

The Arab ambassadors thanked China “for upholding a just position on the Palestinian question … and expressed the hope that China will continue to play a positive and constructive role.” 

Zhai voiced full understanding that the “top priority is to keep calm and exercise restraint, protect civilians, and provide necessary conditions for relieving the humanitarian crisis.” 

After this extraordinary meeting, the Chinese Foreign Ministry posted on its website at midnight a statement by Foreign Minister Wang Yi titled “China Stands on the Side of Peace and Human Conscience on the Question of Palestine.” This reportedly prompted a call by the Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan to Wang Yi. 

Interestingly, Blinken too called Wang Yi from Riyadh on Oct. 14, where, according to the State Department readout, he “reiterated U.S. support for Israel’s right to defend itself and called for an immediate cessation of Hamas’ attacks and the release of all hostages” and stressed the importance of “discouraging other parties (read Iran and Hezbollah) from entering the conflict.”

Succinctly put, in all these exchanges involving Saudi Arabia — especially, in Blinken’s meetings in Riyadh with the Saudi foreign minister and Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, while the U.S. focused on the hostage issue, the Saudi side turned the attention to the humanitarian crisis in Gaza. 

The State Department readouts (here and here) bring out the two sides’ divergent priorities. 

A coordinated Saudi-Iranian strategy backed by China is putting pressure on Israel to agree to a ceasefire and to de-escalate. The U.N.’s backing isolates Israel further.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s exit is to be expected but he won’t throw in the towel without a fight. U.S.-Israel ties may come under strain. 

Biden is caught in a bind, harking back to Jimmy Carter’s predicament over the Iran hostage crisis in 1980, which ended his bid for a second term as president. Biden is already backtracking. 

Where do things go from here? Clearly, the longer the Israeli assault on Gaza continues, the international condemnation and demand to allow a humanitarian corridor will only intensify. Not only will countries such as India, which expressed “solidarity” with Israel, lose face in the Global South, even Washington’s European allies will be hard-pressed. It remains to be seen whether an invasion of Gaza by Israel is anymore realistic at all. 

Going forward, the Arab-Iran-China axis will raise the plight of Gaza in the U.N. Security Council. [On Wednesday the U.S. vetoed a draft resolution calling for a humanitarian ceasefire. A Russian proposed a draft resolution failed on Monday.]  

Meanwhile, the U.S. project to resuscitate the Abraham Accords loses traction and the plot to undermine the China-brokered Saudi-Iranian rapprochement faces sudden death.

As regards the power dynamic in West Asia, these trends can only work to the advantage of Russia and China, especially if the BRICS were to take a lead role at some point to navigate a Middle East peace process that is no longer the monopoly of the U.S. This is payback time for Russia. 

The era of petrodollar is ending — and along with that, U.S. global hegemony. The emergent trends, therefore, go a long way to strengthen multipolarity in the world order. 

M.K. Bhadrakumar is a former diplomat. He was India’s ambassador to Uzbekistan and Turkey. Views are personal. This article originally appeared on Indian Punchline.