Reaction & Commentary
So-called Battleground states are there other states that aren’t typically seen as being Ultra competitive that Trump could actually flip this November and the answer to that question is a resounding yes according to the only polar released from Maine so far Donald Trump has a 6% lead over Biden in a
State that Republicans haven’t won since 1988 in this video we’re going to take a look at other states that weren’t very competitive in 2020 but are certainly in play for Trump in 2024 so essentially this map is going to show the best case scenario for Donald Trump in November
And if that is going to happen Joe Biden is not going to win his solid states by nearly as large of a margin as he typically does States like Washington and Oregon are only going to be Likely California is still going to be solid and so is Hawaii but a state like
Illinois is definitely going to be much closer New York is only going to be a likely State and you’ll have some solid States here in the Northeast but many of them Connecticut New Jersey uh not Delaware Maryland but many of these Northeastern states that were very solid
For Biden in 2020 are going to become more competitive and that first district of Maine it’s very blue it will also retain its solid Democratic status and so with the solid and likely States filled in now for Biden he only has 181 electoral votes much less than he
Typically does while Donald Trump is going to easily win nearly every state in the middle of the country and so essentially what we’re doing in this video is we’re expanding the Battleground States map there are not just going to be the states of Wisconsin Michigan Georgia Arizona Nevada anymore
We’re going to include other states that Joe Biden might have had a pretty easy time winning in 2020 but Hillary Clinton struggled to win in 2016 and are going to be much more competitive in 2024 than they were last time so Donald Trump is going to have no trouble winning Iowa
And Ohio I mean if you just go back 12 years in 2012 these were blue States both Iowa and Ohio were key Battlegrounds in 2016 that Trump easily won and most recently in 2020 Trump won them by nearly the same margin so these two states can no longer be called
Competitive they are firmly in the Republican column other solid Trump States on this map include Texas and Florida Trump only won Texas by five points last time and Florida by 3.3 however these states are showing very different Trends in 2016 Trump won Florida by just one point and Texas by
Nine but in 2024 Donald Trump has led in every single poll from Texas and he’s leading by very healthy margins Donald Trump is the clear favorite in Texas and in the best case scenario for him he would undoubtedly win this solid red state by a solid margin on the Senate
Level and the gubinatorial level Texas is still a very safe safe red state Florida on the other hand has gone from being one of the peer toss-ups to being another key member of the Republican Coalition if you look at the latest polling from Florida we have one from
November and one from December Trump leads by double digit margins this would have been unheard of just three election Cycles ago I mean look at the election of 2012 Barack Obama wins reelection and wins Florida by just 0.88% look at all of the states that
Voted to the left or to the right of Florida Florida was in the dead center now it isn’t even one of the states in play and we don’t even have that much polling from the state as of course the last poll was conducted 3 months ago so
Florida is going to be solid red as well and so is Alaska three electoral votes Donald Trump leads by 12% in the most recent poll despite only carrying the state by 10 points last time so with all of the solid States for Trump filled in we have
218 and then with the addition of the very solid red second district of Maine 219 to Biden’s 181 before we continue only 133% of you guys are subscribed so please take this time to consider subscribing and help us reach a 100,000 subscribers now coming back to the map
These are going to be the real competitive States instead of like in 2020 where Iowa and Ohio these were States that had a lot of attention or Texas and Florida I mean these four states are just gone for Joe Biden by default these states have no chance at
Voting blue in 2024 however States like Colorado Virginia these states are now genuinely in play and in a best case scenario for Donald Trump a state like Arizona isn’t even going to be closed 5.2% is Trump’s lead in the state and if you look at prior polling Joe Biden
Hasn’t LED in a single poll in the state of Arizona going all the way back to April of last year it’s been nearly a year since Biden led by just one percentage point in any presidential poll from the state so Joe Biden might have flipped Arizona in 2020 and became
The first Democrat to do so since Bill Clinton in 1996 but he certainly isn’t going to hold on to his victory from 2020 Arizona is going to be likely Republican in a best case scenario for Trump in neighboring Nevada things getting even crazier this is a state
That Donald Trump has never won before Republicans haven’t won the Silver State since Bush in 2004 and Trump winning it in 2020 would have been a huge surprise let alone now in 2024 I think it really says a lot about Biden’s campaign that Trump leads by
7.7% in the state of Nevada a state he did not win in 2016 he did not win in 2020 I mean just look at the polling Biden hasn’t LED since all the way back in October and according to the most recent polling Trump leads by double
Digits in the latest New York Times in Sienna College poll which is one of the most reputable pollsters out there and if you look at the polling from 2020 this is before Joe Biden won Nevada by 2.4% Nevada was supposed to go to Biden by 5.3% so I’m not going to place Nevada
Into the likely Republican category just because it still does have a history of voting for Democrat R I’m going to more conservatively place it into the lean Republican column and when I what I mean by these margins is anything over 12% is going to be Solid 5 to2 is going to be
Likely 1 to5 is lean and anything under 1% is going to be a tilt margin Nevada also recently elected a republican Governor defeating incumbent Democrat Steve cisac so Nevada has seen a sharp Trend to the right it is no longer the blue state it was under Barack Obama in
2008 next up in Colorado and New Mexico these two states are slightly better for Biden compared to its two neighbors out west but in Colorado Joe Biden only leads by 6.5% compared to his 14-point victory in the previous election that’s just how much Biden has fallen off in
Colorado and so in a best case scenario for Trump I do still see Biden winning the state but it is certainly going to be a lot closer than it was last time in New Mexico 5 electoral votes the Hispanic vote is Shifting away from the Democratic party yes Joe Biden is doing
Well in the polling but this was from all the way back last year this PPP poll was conducted by public policy and this poll was conducted in August of 2023 and these Emerson College polls were conducted all the way back in 2022 so these polls are very very old and they
Do not tell the current story of the election and with Hispanic voters continuing to shift away from Democrats like I said earlier I do see a pathway for Donald Trump to win New Mexico this November and so it is going to be our first tilt State on this map and now
Moving up to the Midwest Minnesota’s 10 electoral votes could really go for Donald Trump trump is only behind by three points in the state however in a best case scenario for him he could definitely beat Biden I mean just look at 2016 Hillary Clinton almost lost the
State of Minnesota and a victory for Trump in the state would be a pretty big deal it’s the state with the longest Democratic voting streak Republicans haven’t won Minnesota since Richard Nixon’s reelection in 1972 every other state voted red as well with the exception of Massachusetts so
Minnesota going red would be a pretty big deal and it would totally destroy the blue wall that won Democrats elections from the 9s going all the way until 2016 as you can see 199 92 Pennsylvania Michigan Wisconsin Minnesota these full of blue wall States helped Clinton get elected in 1996 they
Helped him get reelected in 2000 they still voted for Al Gore even though he lost the election same thing for John KY in 2004 and in 2008 Barack Obama wins them by even larger margins and this happened until 2016 when Hillary Clinton loses Pennsylvania Michigan and Wisconsin Joe Biden barely won them back
In 2020 but if you look at a state like Wisconsin Joe Biden won it by 0.63% he came into an office with a 52% approval rating now his approval sits at 37 it is so likely that Trump is going to win Wisconsin just based on how much Biden’s popularity has fallen and for
Context Trump’s popularity has remained relatively the same since he left office in 2021 the latest polling from Wisconsin shows Trump leading by 1% compared to the final 2020 polling which suggested that Biden was going to win Wisconsin by 8.4% so there’s no doubt Wisconsin is going to be red and it is
Going to be a lean Republican state in the best case scenario for Donald Trump there’s no doubt that Michigan will flip as well Trump currently leads by 3.6% in this state and this state is traditionally the most blue out of the three states of Wisconsin Michigan and Pennsylvania so if you exclude Minnesota
Michigan should be the most liberal however if you look at the polling Biden hasn’t L on a poll again just like many other states we saw since way back in October of last year so Trump is in a very strong position to win the Wolverine state and just like Wisconsin
Biden was supposed to win Michigan by a pretty big margin 7.9% according to the final 2020 polling at one point he led by a double- digit margin in the state in the end Biden did win Michigan by 2.8 but certainly Donald Trump is the favorite now in the state and can
Definitely win it this November Pennsylvania is another state that can go to Trump if you do look at the latest polling though yes Donald Trump is ahead by just 0.2% uh Joe Biden actually LED in a few polls from January of this or of this year however Trump’s 0.2% lead is still
Pretty big if you consider the fact that Joe Biden was supposed to win the Keystone State by Five Points in 2020 but only only won by 1.2 and of course in a best case scenario for Donald Trump he is certainly going to win the state of Pennsylvania and he will take the
Entire blue wall and flip it all red which means that in the midwest the only Blue State left is Illinois now before we move on to these Northeastern states I’m going to start off with North Carolina and Georgia just to get them out of the way I mean North Carolina
It’s just not going to be close it’s going to be a trump Victory here I mean look at the polling here Trump is easily going to win he the state by 1% last time he was supposed to lose according to the polling Joe Biden was supposed to
Win North Carolina but Trump is going to win it and it’s not even going to be that contested North Carolina is just like Florida it is going to be much rder than it was last time same thing with Georgia 16 electoral votes I mean just
Look at the state 5.7% in favor of trump we saw Brian Kemp easily get reelected over Stacy Abrams in 2022 during the midterms Biden has LED in a poll in Georgia again since all the way back in 2022 if you look at the polling here this is November of 2022 because
November of 2023 was all the way up here so Joe Biden has no chance in Georgia yes he flipped it in 2020 he won it by 24% this was the closest state but it’s not going to happen for him again Georgia is also going to be likely Republican up in Maine two electoral
Votes this is the atlarge vote we already know Biden’s going to win the first district and Trump is going to win the second however Trump has taken the lead in the state as a whole in 2020 Biden went main by 9% in 2016 Hillary Clinton won it by just 2.9 so Maine is
Certainly in play despite the state not having gone red since 1988 so when we look at Maine now in 2024 Donald Trump leads in the only poll conducted so far six percentage points is his margin there was also an earlier poll that showed Trump ahead by 1% now
This is not on world clear politics but on 538 you can find that poll the state of main is going to go red according to the numbers however I think it is still going to be very very close I’m going to place it into that tilt Republican category still even though Trump leads
By a staggering six points in New Hampshire Donald Trump is behind in the latest poll but Nikki Haley does manage to beat out Biden which means that there is a weakness there for bid Republicans can still win this Granite State and in 2016 Hillary Clinton also came very
Close to losing New Hampshire winning by just 0.37% New Hampshire hasn’t always been that blue of a state go back to just 2004 it voted for John krey by 1% and in 2000 George W bush won it by around the same margin so New Hampshire can
Certainly go red and it’s going to be another tilt Republican state in Trump’s best case scenario while in the second district of Nebraska Trump won it by two points in 2016 he can win by similar mergin in his best case scenario and finally in Virginia 13 electoral votes
Biden won it by 10 points in 2020 Clinton won it by just five in 2016 however in 2021 Glenn yunan a republican was elected governor of the Commonwealth of Virginia and with Nikki Haley actually leading Joe Biden in one of the polls from earlier this year yes Biden
Is still definitely up but if Biden’s popularity continues to flip Trump can certainly flip the Commonwealth of Virginia a state that hasn’t voted red since all the way back in 2004 so this is the best case scenario for Donald Trump if he continues to rise in
Popularity as he has been over the last few months he can certainly win 347 electoral votes a modern-day electoral landslide to Joe Biden’s 191 it isn’t even going to be close the electoral map is going to expand to include States like Minnesota Virginia New Mexico New Hampshire and Maine as
States that will actually matter not just focusing on States like Florida Georgia and North Carolina that Trump is nearly guaranteed to win at this point
