South Carolina from last weekend on NBC you said this week that the only way to keep the war from escalating is to hold Iran accountable part of what you’re talking about now and that it might mean bombing their oil refiner have you had any discussions with the Biden Administration about this a bit
Here’s my message if Hezbollah which is a proxy of Iran launches a massive attack on Israel I consider that a threat to the to to the state of Israel existential in nature I will introduce a resolution in the United States Senate to allow military action by the United
States in conjunction with Israel to knock Iran out of the oil business Iran if you escalate this war we’re coming for you are you effectively poised to declare war on Iran that’s very strong language I am poised to use military force to destroy the source of funding
For Hamas few others in the Republican party will be that open about their intentions but very few disagree with him certainly not in private they agree so what would war with Iran mean it’s hard to know because virtually no one who’s talking about it in public is operating from a deep interest in
America’s interest is this good for us or is it not Doug thank you for coming on do you think that we are moving toward war with Iran yes I do and it looks like the chosen destination is indeed Armageddon there doesn’t seem to be any real appreciation for the
Implications for us and and frankly for Europe and the world as well as the Middle East of such action take for an example just on the economic side about 20% of the world’s oil passes through the Straits of horu every month probably 25% of liqu I natural gas and you’re
Talking about shutting down 2 to three million barrels a day of oil from Iran this entire region is involved in the war this is not an Iranian Monopoly by any stretch of the imagination but the point is that when we’re looking at 10year treasury yields up over 5% and
People are increasingly convinced that the FED has lost control the economic side of the house is catastrophe then when you look at the military side you have to look at the Arsenal of missile that Iran possesses and they can reach out 1,200 miles with great Precision very high explosive conventional
Warheads that would do enormous damage destroying whole city blocks in places like hia Tel Aviv even Jerusalem though I doubt they would attack Jerusalem the bottom line is that we need to think this through and everyone right now is emoting there is no thinking anywhere as
Far as I can tell the only possible exception may be amazingly enough enough Mr erdogan and turkey who came out this morning and indicated he was willing to mediate the dispute between Israel and Hamas whether or not anyone in Washington or Israel is interested in talking I don’t know but if we could
Sideline turkey and keep turkey out of the fight that would ultimately help Israel enormously so what would happen to the United States if we followed Senator Graham’s advice and just began bombing critical infrastructure in Iran what what would happen then all of the bases that we have in Iraq and Syria
Unfortunately where we still have over a thousand Americans all of those would be targeted and this time they would Target them accurately and this destruction would be wholesale I would expect trouble here at home and in the United States because of the open border Hezbollah has a very large operation in
Mexico there are no doubt many Hezbollah agents inside the United States we can only begin to imagine the kind of trouble they could cause the missile and Space Program in Iran is very Advanced as is their cyber warfare Fair capability all of these things would be brought to bear against us but what’s
Most important I think for Americans to understand is if we attack Iran on the basis of hezbollah’s alleged willingness to attack Israel if Israel invades Gaza we will end up in a fight with Russia Russia will not sit by quietly and watch Iran destroyed by the United States Air
And Naval power in the region and once Russia enters this it becomes much more than just a local conflict maybe more than just a regional War we haven’t thought this through we need to do that and I doubt seriously at that point that the Turks would be able to stay out the
Turks are Sunni Muslims they are the deao leaders in the Sunni Muslim World they have the largest armed forces in the region they are in close proximity to Israel they could move forces South through Syria very rapidly and I’m sure Bashar al-assad assuming he even survives the opening of this campaign
Would not obstruct them so many question questions but just to back up one click you described Iran’s missile Arsenal but Iran is a country that’s been the subject of very intense sanction regime from the United States in increased by the last president Donald Trump but for
A long time how is Iran still such a powerful country militarily given those sanctions it sounds like maybe they didn’t work well no I think that’s an important Point Tucker and you’re absolutely right we place so much value on these sanctions and assume that they have this profound impact normally
Sanctions harm the population in terms of lowering its standard of living making life more difficult for the everyday citizen but it doesn’t fundamentally alter the policy or the goals and objectives of the government and this is something that I don’t think we understand the same thing is true for
For Hamas and Gaza you want to go after Hamas you want to destroy it I think everyone with a sound mind is interested in the destruction of Hamas but do you want to kill hundreds of thousand thousands of people in order to get at Hamas that’s the question we have the
Same problem in Iran our sanctions have not harmed the regime’s ability to develop and build very complex and sophisticated missiles these missiles are very accurate now there are hundreds of not thousands and the long range missiles the 1200 mile range theater ballistic missiles are a very serious
Threat to us in the region and to Israel and the sanctions have had no impact there if any thing the Iranians have pulled together the best human capital in their country the best Engineers the best thinkers and put them to work primarily on Missile technology and on
Cyber warfare and that’s where we stand right now we have to expect the worst as a result if we strike Iran how is the US military do you think having spent your life in it leading troops in combat and at the Pentagon positioned to respond to with with Iran
Right now are we in a strong position or or not in your view no I don’t think we’re in a strong position I think we’re probably at the weakest point in our recent history uh I think you’ve got to look at the realities of new weapon systems new
Capabilities the United States Navy if it’s going to preserve its capability at Sea is probably going to be compelled to operate somewhere north and west of Sicily if it comes within closer range then it falls into this envelope where the Iranians can strike it and as I said
Before we have to assume the Russians will come into this once you move into the Eastern Mediterranean you are vulnerable to the kinshaw missiles and other missiles cruise missiles and Hypersonic missiles that the Russians have this makes it very difficult to fly strikes in support of the Israeli
Defense Force against hisbah because now you’re flying a very long distance you deliver your ordinance you have to land in Israel in order to refuel Israel is going to operate under a hail if not a rainstorm of missiles and Rockets making it very dangerous to do so our Naval
Power while substantial may not have the desired impact on the ground that we would like and then finally we have no real army anymore the Army is down to perhaps what 450,000 how much of that is ready to fight is open to debate much of it is sitting in Eastern Europe right
Now we don’t have the means to rapidly ship a large force of 80 to 100,000 troops on the ground into the region which means that we’re riing on Special Forces and right now 2,000 Marines and perhaps 2,000 special forces and Special Operations forces that’s not going to
Make much of a dent and as we’ve seen quite recently within the last 24 hours or so uh some of our special ops forces and Israeli special ops forces went into Gaza to Recon iter to plan for where they might want to go to free hostages
And and make an impact and they were shot to pieces and took heavy losses as I understand it I think that’s where we’re headed and I don’t see that as a win for Israel in any way shape or form and I certainly think it’s very dangerous for us as I’ve tried to point
Out to a number of people until Britain and entered World War I it was just a another European War once Britain entered it it became a global war once we are a co-belligerent we enter this thing it’s going to be very difficult for Russia and Turkey not to also come
Into this fight against us because they will not tolerate the sort of collective punishment that Israel plans for Gaza the US military does have an awful lot of generals however as you pointed out multiples of the number we have had the absolute number we had during World
War III and they’re paid to think about this stuff it why has it dawned on no one apparently who’s spoken publicly anyway that this could really harm our country Gravely why is no one saying that I’m sure there are people in the US military who are aware but let’s be frank most of
The people at the top of the military have never operated under artillery fire or rocket fire they haven’t seen direct fire combat they haven’t seen real war per se remember we’ve had the luxury of sitting around forward operating bases and striking opponents that were armed with AK-47s and command detonated mines an
Occasional mortar or rocket very low intensity combat this is a high-end conventional war that we’re looking at with the potential to go nuclear which obviously I don’t think we or the Russians want to happen but we have the wild card in Israel they do have a nuclear capability we don’t know what
The trip wire is for them to employ such a weapon at that point of course all bets are off and and I think most of the world would turn against Israel right now they just have to worry about the Muslim World against them it would certainly widen if they went that far
This there are too many unknowns and uncertainties here and everyone always assumes at the beginning of such a conflict it’ll be contained we’ll only have to fight these people Hamas maybe hisbah it never works out that way these things always last longer than everyone thinks the resources required are much
More profound than what we anticipated and remember we’ve already used up many of our war stocks in Ukraine and we’ve left Ukraine in a state of ruins places on life support a half a million dead what are we going to do to Israel if we press ahead down this road and it seems
Listening to Secretary of State blinka this morning who more and more sounds like our commander-in-chief that there is no room for negotiation no room for mediation Hamas must be destroyed we must go into Gaza if so I think we’re on this very dangerous road to Armageddon
What is the objective of the IDF and of blinkin of the United States and Israel in this short term I destroy Hamas but what is what does that mean to destroy Hamas in the minds I think of policy makers in Washington as well as in Israel is to systematically root them
Out and kill them in Gaza now let’s be frank when you go into an urban environment you can’t pick or choose your targets very easily first of all no matter how well trained you are you’re moving moving into an area that is rubbled they’re ruins it’s very
Difficult to negotiate in that when I say negotiate I mean negotiate the terrain through the rubble you don’t know where the enem is going to pop up once you destroy all these buildings he can be anywhere so you’re going to take losses going in but more important once
You start going in there you’re going to end up killing whatever you find because the soldier the Israeli soldier the American Soldier very much the same they want to live they want to survive when in doubt pull the trigger they’re not going to stop and say now wait a minute
Before I shoot I really need to think about this because that may be a civilian or there may be a family there that’s not going to happen you can’t expect that so the notion that this is a kind of warfare that is so precise that it can void avoid so-called collateral
Damage is just nonsense we can’t expect miracles from the IDF or our own troops which means that you’re going to annihilate everything in Gaza and remember the Israelis would like to push the population out the problem is when you push the population out if you did into Egypt you’re going to run into
Trouble with the Egyptians but even if you manage to get them there you’re only moving the problem that confronts you 20 mil 30 mil away in other words killing people isn’t going to solve the problem but it’s very attractive at the moment and it’s very difficult to talk people
Out of it do do you believe American troops will be in engaged physically present in the invasion of Gaza I’m sure they will because we have American citizens who are hostages and we’ve already made it clear that we will assist and support the Israelis in freeing those hostages again the problem
Is how do you get the hostages out when you’re fighting in this extraordinarily dirty and complex environment what’s to prevent the hostages from Simply being executed as soon as you move in force into Gaza I think the Israelis know that I think our leadership in Washington
Knows it they may have even decided that if that happens that’s tragic but the ultimate goal of destroying Hamas demands this again it’s the issue of collective punishment I would encourage Americans everywhere to listen to King Abdullah of Jordan’s speech in Cairo just a couple of days ago where he made
It clear that he agreed with theorence of what had happened in Israel and and loes Hamas for its barbarity and savagery but he also goes on to point out that Collective punishment Meed out to 2 million people is unacceptable both under International LA and for humanitarian reasons that’s the problem
And As Americans see more destruction and more and more film footage and photographs come out of Gaza showing children women old men dying being killed the support for Israel is going to erode and at the same time the anger and hatred inside the region which already dislikes Israel is going to be
Phenomenal so Israel is doing something that I think no one has ever accomplished at least not in my lifetime and that is uniting Sunni and Shia against itself that’s why I think we have an obligation to save Israel from itself but that’s not a popular position right now it’s bombs away and everyone
Is cheering what about the argument often articulated including by Leading presidential candidates recently that considerations like the ones you just raised like the long-term effects of decisions or Global public opinion Downstream Terror attacks thinking about any of that is a VI ation of principle and you’re basically giving
Into the terrorist by weighing any of it how would you respond to that most politicians follow public opinion right now public opinion supports violence against Hamas and if that includes the destruction of Gaza so be it we support it very few people look beyond that and understand the larger consequences in
The last century or I guess I should say in the early 20th century the great powers intervened on more than one occasion to prevent turkey from being destroyed not because they loved the ottoman Turks but because they saw the alternative being chaos turkey had a role to play therefore we want to
Preserve it we have to think about Egypt Egypt has been a good strategic partner for Israel they’ve kept the peace there for decades the Egyptians are now in a very difficult position at least 100,000 Egyptian troops have been moved towards the border with Gaza involving several divisions under great pressure from
Public opinion in the Arab world in the Muslim world they may have to engage the Israelis because no one will protect the population in Gaza that’s a terrible possibility one that we don’t want because if that happens to Egypt and hisbah attacks from the north that will bring in everyone else and we’re
Suddenly confronting a war on a regional level that is going to harm us economically physically in many ways but could threaten the very existence of Israel which I think is the root problem here we don’t want Israel’s existence threatened we want to save Israel we
Want to keep it intact but we may not be able to do that if this war runs out of control and let’s be frank historically Wars run out of control they move in directions you never anticipated so if you think you can plot this route forward as Lindsey Graham thinks you’re
Crazy once this is Unleashed it’s not manageable anymore you you said a couple you made reference a couple times to the American citizens being held by Hamas what do we know about them I think most of them are American citizens who happen to be Jewish who were there to celebrate
During the holiday period or participate in this music festival we’ve heard so much about I I don’t think they ever anticipated anything like this happening yeah the problem is as we’ve said before extracting them from this Hast stack is nigh on to Impossible what about the concerns of about terrorism in the United
States in the wake of all of this I think they very valid yeah I think these concerns are very valid we’ve had open borders now for the last 2 and a half years but we’ve had an illegal migration problem for the last three plus decades the we don’t know who’s in the
Country we really don’t no one in homeland security can tell you who is here the Europeans face something quite similar they were bullied into admitting millions of Muslims from the Middle East and Africa we’ve been bullied by our government to open the borders and let in effectively anybody who wants to come
So we don’t know who’s here but we do know that Hamas as well as Hezbollah have positions in Mexico of the two hisbah is much stronger much larger and much better equipped and financed so we have to expect that once Hezbollah is in the war and we are against them and Iran
That much of our infrastructure will be at risk something is bad or potentially even worse than 9/11 could happen here this brings us back to the whole issue of immigration ation and border security we’ve essentially ignored it the same politicians who are pushing for war against virtually everyone in the Middle
East which is what it boils down to in the final analysis don’t seem to have thought carefully about protecting us or our borders from all of the terrible things that we’ve seen in Israel how much damage could these same people do to us in a shopping mall in the space of
15 minutes it doesn’t take much imagination to understand how dangerous this is do you think that this war if it comes and it as as you said it seems like it is how will that affect American domestic politics War traditionally has been used by the people in power to shut
Down descent can you imagine that happening in this case I think they’ll try uh fortunately thanks to people like Elon Musk who uh bought Twitter and ended the censorship or suspended it uh the truth does get through and reach Americans but Americans will figure out pretty quickly if if two things tend to
Happen at once you have the the war overseas and the war here but remember the economy and the and the financial condition right now if you turn on any of the business channels for the first time in my memory lots and lots of analysts are coming on and talking about
The FED having lost control the rising interest rates the inability to manage and cope with the Sovereign national debt of 33 trillion and that’s the tip of a proverbial Iceberg we already have America who are struggling with inflation anyway now we’re looking at potentially scarcity we’ve drained our
Strategic oil reserve for all intents and purposes if the straight of hormo is shut down if the Suz Canal is closed we’re in a lot of trouble in the short run that’s for sure how rapidly can we recover from all of this how many refineries can we put back into
Operation how much drilling can we do quickly the answer is not very much so draining that strategic oil Reserve was a very serious mistake but we’ll be as we become impoverished and chaotic and subject to these Terror attacks we’ll be winning important moral victories don’t you think in our effort
To stand at Israel’s side and help protect Israel we have taken a different route and cast moral turpitude to the side other words how do you help one without committing a war crime against the other this is the problem with Collective punishment this is the problem with annihilating Gaza and
Trying to sweep out its population that’s unacceptable to us as Americans I don’t think if you sat down any of Israel’s most Ardent supporters in the United States and said are you willing to trade the lives of several hundred thousand people in Gaza for the lives
Taken in Israel by Hamas after all Hamas and Palestinian Jihad were the fighters they lost 1500 there were 3,000 involved in the several waves of the attack they’re dead now we’re looking at perhaps 5,000 civilians dead how many more will we witness is that somehow or another Justified morally and I think a
Lot of Americans will struggle with that that’s why I say it would be best if we had a cooling off period I’m glad that the Israelis are waiting for additional Naval power to arrive on station in the Mediterranean and also for additional equipment theater ballistic missile
Defense and so forth but we need to use this time to think carefully about how far we want to go because right now it’s a one Street to Regional war and I don’t think anybody really wants that if they think about it carefully therefore looking at someone like Eran however
Slippery we may consider him to be his willingness to mediate is a bright light in an otherwise very dark sky and we should look to that because we don’t want the regional War it will destroy us economically we’re already in bad shape we’ve already suffered because of the
Foolish intervention in Ukraine to try to destroy Russia now we have Russia more powerful militarily than it’s been since the 80s and it’s poised to enter on the side of Iran we should all give that some serious thought last question do you know of any leaders in the United
States political leaders at the Pentagon within the Biden Administration who are thinking clearly about this which is to say who are framing their thoughts on it around what’s best for the United States long term is anybody thinking that way yes yes there are the problem is none of
Them hold High positions in government and none of their voices or their analyses or their viewpoints are going to reach anybody in power I think you have to listen carefully to what Secretary of State blinkin said he was absolutely unambiguous we are going to destroy Hamas whatever that
Takes that means Regional War frankly and anybody who thinks that people are going to say oh no we’re afraid of America we’re not going to risk that they’re wrong they are not afraid to risk attacking Israel for fear of coming into confrontation with us we are not
The power we were in 1991 and they know that and economically our position is very fragile let’s face it so the bottom line is yes there are people out there but they’re not being heard and they’re not going to be heard in the current environment
