President of the Dallas fed at that time Richard fiser now Danielle is the CEO and chief strategist for her company called Qi research a research and analytic firm I have all of her information in the show notes and I hope you enjoy the show Danielle I am so honored to be
Sharing the screen here with you and I and I just have to tell you you know I really appreciate you you know your experience with macroeconomics and what’s going on in the country right now I mean this is a really important you know uh podcast and thank you so much
And Welcome to our show thank you for having me we are definitely at a critical intersection so to speak you know Danielle the US economy is not looking really good and there’s so many issues that are going on right now that are affecting Americans financially uh and will be in the coming
Months and I don’t think that many people are prepared what they really need to do to get through you know what some economic experts believe will be something worse than the global financial crisis of 2008 and you know I’ve heard many people even say that you know depending on what happens over the
Next couple of months I mean what we may go through may even take us back and compared to the Great Depression back in 1929 and that was 10 years long and before we go into you know your opinions and recommendations on the current state of the economy especially I want to talk
About things as it relates to housing and jobs Danielle please tell everyone who you are a little bit about your background working with the Dallas Federal reserve and what what do you spend your days doing right now uh so I run Qi research uh I was at
The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas for nine years I advised Richard fiser on pretty much every aspect of the financial markets and the economy and how monetary policy what the FED does how that played into how markets behaved how the economy reacted um before that I
Was on Wall Street I got my MBA in finance and actually just like Richard Fischer he was one of the few non phds who was running uh a district Federal Reserve kind of like J Pals not a PhD in economics uh he’s he’s he’s more of a a
Practitioner more more of a lawyer but um the important thing is that I kind of came at my position at the FED after leaving Wall Street inside of a firm that was kind of a Pioneer if you will in collateral Iz mortgage obligations so I got to see basically the the inside of
The stuffing in the turkey what formed the foundation of the housing bubble the last one and how that ended up culminating in a disaster for what more than 10 million Americans lost their homes to foreclosure so I that’s that that is my context that’s my background and it’s how I approach running Qi
Research is the same way that I used to advise Richard Fischer I I like I I see everything through the prism of how monetary policy interacts with the financial markets interacts with the economy yeah well I have to say I read your book titled fed up I highly
Recommend everybody to read it actually it was it really opened my eyes and it it seemed like Regulators made some really bad decisions bailing out the US economy back in 2008 and Danielle from interviews I’ve heard with you you know you’ve stated that the US actually was heading into a recession in
2019 even before the pandemic and you know it it’s easy to Monday Morning Quarterback we can always say you know hindsight’s crystal clear 20120 but what mistakes were made during the global financial crisis and I know you were in with the Dallas fed during that time and
Where were we actually headed in 2019 prior to the pandemic so I think um I think that during the financial crisis and its aftermath the the biggest error that were that was made chiefly by Ben Bernan uh and then his PR then his successor Janet Yellen Was Fear uh there was this ingrained
Fear of we can’t let the economy stumble and fall we have to do everything we can to prevent a down cycle and what you end up doing when you pressed forward with the second round of quantitative easing the second round of money Printing and then the third round you ended up creating an
Environment where the bad players in the economy can subsist because the junk bond market is open so instead of poor business models getting washed out of the system they end up being on life support because the Federal Reserve kept interest rates at the zero bound artificially repressed interest rates
And continued to grow its balance sheet now that only worked for so long and jal’s first attempt he came into office February the 4th 2018 jal’s first attempt to wean the economy off of the fed’s extraordinary policies ended up culminating in along with a major trade war ended up culminating in something my
My mentor Dr Lacy hunt has taught me and that is we had a contraction in in FYE global trade and when when trade contracts for a full year in US history at least the US economy has been in recession we were seeing a lot of the same patterns in
Late 2019 that we’re seeing today in other words the the the number of states with Rising jobless claims was blowing out and we knew that we were headed into recession and what I have maintained and it’s a very it’s kind of a a heretical take if you will is that the US economy
Was forcibly closed uh in March of 2020 and it was also equally forcibly reopened because the first stimulus checks the first round of the cares act uh paying people an extra $2,500 a month uh to not work uh those federal unemployment um stiens if you will they
Hit American bank accounts on April the 15 15th 2020 so my stance right now is that the US economy has been in expansion since June of 2009 and if not for this the extraordinary stimulus measures that were undertaken after the pandemic hit uh we would have long since been in
Recession but we know that that fiscal stimulus continues to this day but I’m of the mindset that we’re 172 months into one of the long EST well period the longest recovery technical expansion in US history you know you had mentioned in your book fed up that back in 2008 the
Fomc had mostly and you just mentioned you know phds uh but you said that most of these people had phds um in economics and actually they had earned their doctor from you know some of America’s top universities so these are book smart people you know
When I look back then at you know what ended up happening a lot of the decisions that the fomc made you know really seem to have benefited the elite or their Wall Street businesses and it seems like when you know when I’m looking at you know what happened with the pandemic and the
Dropping of the interest rate again to zero you know pumping the economy why is it that it seems like we’re ually bailing out the elite and I mean is this intentional I mean these are smart people is was this intentional to do or is it where we are today just a result
Of just bad decisions well it’s it’s definitely a combination to suggest that um to suggest that Allen Greenspan was not fascinated with being the popular boy after he was kind of the the the geeky kid growing up but he became very popular on Wall Street because Wall Street figured it out pretty quickly
After the crash of 1987 that hey the Maestro’s got my back and he’s not going to let me suffer any losses and that made him very very popular in some very tight circles inside and outside of the Beltway he was fascinated by that and uh to that extent it was kind of
Intentional the flip side of it is these are really brilliant people you you cannot study Kindom metrics without having a deep knowledge of calculus you have to be smart to your point but did a lot of the economists not understand that trickle down was a myth yes what
We’ve seen over the past several decades is that the amount of money that CEOs pay themselves has gone up exponentially compared to what they’ll pay the average worker so the percent of corporate profits that are going to the workforce has declined appreciably over time share BuyBacks have exploded that’s a good way
To pay yourself a nice bonus if you’re joq or jenq CEO um but I I think that one of the Fatal flaws of phds in economics is that they believe that if the economy is growing or if profits are filtering up to Corporate America that Corporate America is going to somehow spend more
On the worker bees the economy and thereby everybody benefits it’s simply not how the real world Works greed is real and that’s what we’ve seen manifest and yet the FED continues to try the same exact Solutions uh every time and the only thing that it really creates is a higher level of aggregate
Debt do you think that pal actually made decisions that were I mean I I know you say they make similar decisions and you know I I think you know we I think we can all agree now it wasn’t in the America’s best interest to you know drop rates to zero and uh
Especially to keep them that way for such a long period of time but it really wasn’t a good idea for them to get into buying mortgage back Securities I think what maybe that was what 2012 or something like that that they started doing that and you know dropping mortgage rat to ridiculous unrealistic
Levels uh you know taking on that role in America I mean do you think that um that pal has made worse mistakes than than Bernan or I mean what’s your opinion with that so it’s it’s interesting you ask because it was the most hotly debated topic when I was inside the FED there
Were two biggies right the first was gee we didn’t see this we didn’t see what asset price inflation was doing and how that would affect the economy because the inflation measures that we track they don’t incorporate uh the stock market the bond market they don’t properly account for runaway prices and
Housing so that was kind of one of the conclusions and why I ended up writing fed up because they recognized the the the flaw in the model and they did nothing to correct it the other major debate internally was whether the the FED venturing into mortgage back
Securities which is a form of credit easing which violates the Federal Reserve Act of 1913 you’re never supposed to choose winners and losers in the economy you’re never supposed to say people in Housing Home Builders they’re going to win everybody else is to the detriment of everybody else
That’s that that’s against the Federal Reserve mandate uh in fact the Federal Reserve Act of 1913 specifically says that the Federal Reserve can never own a government sponsored Enterprise piece of paper and yet here we are what Powell the reason the debate was so hot was we were concerned this is
In 0809 we were concerned that that the FED getting into mortgage back Securities would depress Mobility that you would end up having people who were prisoners in their own home so even if there was a better job halfway across the country they wouldn’t choose to take the job which grows the
Economy because they had these golden handcuffs and of course we we lost we were in the M minority people arguing against it and what J Powell did in 2019 initially with the pivot and then jumping back into full-blown quantitative easing and mortgage back Securities on a scale
Magnitude that had never been seen what J poell failed to recognize was that he could have gone the route at the time when the world was melting down he could have when the pandemic first struck simply gone into treasuries with quantitative easy he didn’t in fact the pendulum swung the opposite direction
The FED bought a third of the mortgage back Securities Market a third 60% two two-thirds of mortgages in this country are south of 4% um the golden handcuffs are real the lack of Mobility is exactly what we were concerned that it would be and it is it’s causing the stagnation in the
Economy to be worse than it would otherwise be because there are there are jobs out there um but a lot of Americans will not leave their homes you know it is so true what you’re saying and as a real estate broker I mean I’m seeing this firsthand I’m having conversations
With sellers that are literally prisoners in their house because and and and a lot of these sellers really can’t even afford to be there right now I mean especially the ones over the last several years they’re so a lot of them are so remorseful and you know but they
Don’t want to get rid of that rate they’re like oh I’ve got to hold on with all my might because of that do you know J pal personally so I have never met Jay um Jay definitely knows who I am but that’s because he is remains a very good friend
Of Richard fisers and he saw many of the markets briefings that I wrote for fiser over the years so he’s certainly familiar with my mindset and um and the work that I’ve done uh but no I’ve never met I’ve never met J Powell and you know
My my my biggest concern is his being out of touch he’s a his net worth is north of $100 million you he worked in private equity for a good part of his career he’s a member of the chvy chase Country Club Life’s not bad I think he’s realizing it in
Retrospect that does not go back and undo the damage that’s been that’s been wrought on the US housing market and I don’t I don’t think anybody’s even really aware of how bad things are actually going to be if I’m good friends with Melody Wright and she follows the
Mortgage Market very closely and just hearing her and knowing that November 2023 is the first month that Americans who’ve taken advantage of the we don’t ever talk about this in in in shared company it’s not polite but there were a lot of extensions to the forbearance measures so some Americans have not paid
Their mortgage since March of 2020 so November is and there’s a very very high bar going forward Ward to get another 12-month extension very high bar she Melody’s explained to me that you’d have to be God himself to get another extension but when you when you look at
The Confluence of factors that October’s the first month that you had to start paying back your student loans that November for many Americans who are upside down in their homes November is going to be the first month that they have to make that mortgage payment we we
We see disaster you you’re familiar with the data you know that at the peak the last housing bubble that FHA was south of 4% of mortgages being made it’s 177% today there are a lot of people who have squeezed into homes that they cannot afford they were the last thing they
Were expecting nobody explained escrow to them they weren’t expecting their their their their insurance their homeowners insurance to go through the roof they weren’t expecting property tax assessments to affect their mortgage despite their low mortgage rate and they sure as heck didn’t know know what what
A you know a 310 HVAC was going to be to to to to replace they have no idea the hvac’s initial estimate when they’re boiling in their homes and their air conditioning has gone out they’re like you’ve got to be kidding me that’s the
Cost of a car a decade ago so um no I I think uh I don’t think J poell knows how bad off so many Americans are are going to be and or the speculation that he drove I call him the Airbnb jocks he he just he does not know Danielle you I
Mean there’s so much I we could have a show in what you just said um it’s so true you are spoton and I’ve been serving the Housing Industry since 1989 so a long time I was a contractor I was a home builder uh you know long before I
Became a licensed agent or became a real estate broker and but I love Melody Wright I’ve actually had her on my show we had a live show uh with her and um and then a separate Show podcast and boy I tell you she’s been hitting the road
And she’s been bringing it and the frustrating thing is and that’s why I love listening to you so much is because we’re not hearing what’s really going on and I don’t I don’t want to say that they’re deliberately lying to us because I do believe that a certain amount is
Like what you just referenced the Regulators they’re not struggling they don’t see the day-to-day things that you know we see or hear when we’re going into people’s houses when we’re watching them not be able to fix the heating and air system um they can’t fix the roof
And it’s leaking and now they have mold growing in their home and they have kids in the house and they’re and you know what three over 300 and this is so frustrating because you can’t find the data you have to dig for it so much but over 300,000 people in the first quarter
Of this year continued to be bailed out a foreclosure and with them extending FHA to 40-year mortgages recasting balances taking 30% Biden signed that into effect we’re now 30% of the balance of the defaulting mortgage can be put in a second mortgage at the end interest
Free red I mean if they hadn’t been doing this we would be looking at a real disaster I mean do you believe that we are looking at something right now or something that’s coming that could be worse than the 08 Global financial crisis so there it’s it’s a great big
Question and I think that I I can’t fully answer it but what I can tell you is that um some analysis that I’ve just gone through shows that almost 700 00 billion dollar uh of credit card and auto loans were extended that would not have been otherwise had there been a rental
Eviction moratorium and you didn’t have to make your car payment for 12 months lending standards were um were deeply deeply loosened um there there were there were banks that were told quietly if somebody can demonstrate that they’ve received a a stimulus check go ahead and make them
The loan and substitute that out for income verification I me Mak your eyes roll into the back of your head to think about the implications and this was spread out across Autos cars and homes and then the current ad Administration came in and they said to
The lenders by the way we sure would appreciate it if you were be inclusive in your lending standards as well um it’s it’s nobody it does nobody any favor to take on more than they can afford um repossessions right now car repossessions you’re the number of people in that industry the number of
Workers in that industry is down by about 25% so it’s it’s they’re only repossessing as many cars as they can they’d be repossessing more if they had and it’s also a dangerous um profession I mean Repo Men are literally getting shot at oh man they are I mean it’s Google car
Repossession and what you’re going to see if you hit Google news is a bunch of local TV stations reporting about this person or that person getting shot at when they tried to repossess a car um the loan to value on car loans is about 140 150% in many cases and the cars are
Not running a lot of them have simply broken down the reason I bring this up is because there was a cohort of Americans who fled the city bought a house in the suburbs or the excerts squeezed into the mortgage payment they had to buy a car for the
First time they couldn’t exactly take the subway that didn’t exist in the exurbs to the grocery store so they have an overpriced car their car insurance in some cases exceeds their payment today and they’re also homeowners and they make enough to have bought the house and bought the car but they make
So much they don’t they don’t qualify for student loan forgiveness they make north of 60,000 I worry about the the percentage in the middle I’m going to throw something out to you I looked at um a particular Credit Union’s um their loan portfolio specific specifically for their cars this is just
To give you an idea when their loans were originally uh underwritten only about well I can’t use hard numbers because I can’t anyways from when they underwrote those car loans to today there’s been a 12-fold increase in credit migration out of Prime into subprime of existing
Loans that so think about that for a minute credit ratings were so inflated by the stimulus measures that were taken that since the stimulus measures have disappeared credit card debt has exploded and there’s been a 12-fold increase in people migrating back into the subprime buckets Capital 1
Financial walked away from car loans in June of 2022 it is still writing off a ton of autol loan debt and credit card debt what we don’t see is housing yet because the forbearance existed for longer than any other type of debt that American households had taken on so all
We can do is look through the prism of other types of debt to get a feel for where we’re headed with the the Housing Industry plus the Airbnb jocks well uh I know firsthand you know and I’ve said this for quite some time the government bailouts has been the only
Thing that’s kept the inventory is you know one of the things that’s kept inventory so low because people are in their home that you know really wouldn’t be had there not been for so much bailout Co 19 money started like you said 20120 some of these people 2019
Were behind um it was very you know little to prove that their financial distress was because of coid I think they only had to mention that but one of the things that I’ve said and and I get so much push back because I’m trying to tell everybody what I’m seeing and all I
Hear is you’re wrong your houses housing is only going to go up and I know that one of the reasons why we haven’t seen such a major Fallout of the people that are paying their mortgages is because the job market has appeared to be relatively strong um I think until now
And you know but I can tell you that with the rising cost of businesses right now the lack of business credit that we’re seeing um coupled with the fact that consumers are really now backing off a discretionary spending you know Danielle I heard you say recently that we should be preparing our households
For a spouse losing their job and I also hear you all you know referencing a lot and I’ve been visiting it and it’s true I’m seeing more and more every day I think it’s dailyjobcuts.com you know is publishing you know what’s happening you know how concerned should we be
Regarding job loss now in the US I mean with all this debt and you know if you you had to guess I mean how high would you expect unemployment rates to reach before we actually get out of this mess so um you know it’s it’s interesting because uh you know the
Founder of dailyjobcuts.com I I’ve gotten to know him over the last few years and the thing that alarms him the most is the steadiness of the closures that he’s seen and to take one example yesterday there were 17 announcements of closings yesterday one of the announcements of the closings was 65
Hospitals that had shut down departments or stopped providing Services one of the other of the 17 closings was Z Gallery which is declared bankruptcy for a third time in a row is closing 21 stores there were 12 companies yesterday that announced layoffs one big bankruptcy one day this is just one day
Um but the thing is here’s a little here’s a little bit of dirty laundry that I’ve never actually shared on a podcast it used to be the case that if you were company abz and you were laying off say 50 people in Maryland and 50 people in California that you wouldn’t actually
Have to as the employer file a warn notice because you were under the 100 employee Thresh hold that requires you by law to let the state know that you’re going to be moving forward with layoffs what the current Administration has done is require that if your company
Abz and you you’re going to lay off 100 people I don’t care they don’t care if it’s in 10 states you’ve got to file the war notices what do warn notices do warn notices give the employee 60 to 90 days of severance to look for a
Job so there’s a pig in the python that’s never occurred in Prior Cycles that’s artificially repressing if you will the jobless claims numbers that many people in my world continue to reference as being so strong there’s there’s an artificial repression of this on top of Yellow trucking going out of
Business a few months ago and that was 30,000 employees who got paid Severance for months we haven’t seen him show up in the in the data but the data is coming you know economists talk about the difference between non-farm payrolls the number of jobs created and the household survey why are these two
Surveys is so far apart well if you’ve been told that you’re going to get laid off and you pick up the phone and not that anybody does or however the Bure of Labor Statistics Reach Out re reaches out to people the household’s going to say I don’t have a
Job I’ve been fired I’m collecting Severance fine but that doesn’t mean that I think I have a job I know the company’s not going to call me back up and say come back to work after 60 or 90 days but if you call the employer that person’s technically on their payroll
They’re going to say I’ve got this many workers and it’s not until they’re off the payroll and they stop paying Severance that they’re going to say that this person is no longer an employe so there’s a lot of mud in the data and there’s a lot that we don’t see that’s
Actually occurring out there but I talked to everybody in all walks of life and I was in Las Vegas recently I was just speaking to an everyday person who was lamenting that she had a rental property in Tampa Bay and that she was fine with the one long-term lease on
Half of the duplex but boy she couldn’t rent it out on the other side and she was worried she was going to get be foreclosed on and she she was just hoping that she could turn her her duplex into two long-term leases instead of one long-term lease and one short-term rental she’s not
Alone yeah we see it you know um you spoke earlier about Dr Lacy hunt you know one of my favorite videos and interviews with you is one that you did and he’s your Mentor I love that and um and to anyone that’s interested in watching it I’ll drop the
Uh link here in the show notes I I tell you I recommend everybody taking the hour and watching this um but you know you were really sharing insights uh not only on your experience with macroeconomics but what was really happening with the job market and you
Know I hear all of this nonsense about I see all these job postings and and then when I dive into it and I learn that a lot of them are part-time jobs who we’re trading in full-time jobs for part-time jobs and they want to come out and say
Well the jobs report is so great you know uh you and Dr Hunt were talking back and forth about um I think it was seven recent negative revisions to non-farm payroll and you also said that this payroll data or the information is not just lagging but not comp complete
And uh we’re not really hearing the real statistics and you know and I believe I mean one of the reasons I’m mentioning this is I believe that unless we start really educating Americans or where we are I mean this this could be catastrophic if we wake up one day and
You you’re talking about the revisions and all of a sudden we get this massive revision of the truth can you kind of explain what you and Dr Lacy hump were talking about in layman’s terms regarding wage decline that seven you know uh periods so um when it comes first to job
Openings uh ironically it was uh two staff papers one from the St Louis fed one from the Dallas fed that showed that 90% of job postings and they just they attached big data to it 90% of the of job postings that are out there are written so that you can poach your
Competitor’s best employee which means that you get your competitor’s best employees is now your best employee and you don’t have to train him so you save you save them the cost the job postings exist but they’re not for new entrance to the workforce they’re for people who
Already have a job which does not generate squat now revisions are interesting because when I spoke with with Lacy last time we’d had seven negative revisions in a row we had never had that documented with the two exceptions of after having emerged from the double dip recession that ended in
1981 after the revision the recession had ended and in 2009 after the Great Recession had ended those are the only two two other presidents and you know I um I I’ll I’ll just say it I think I think there’s some some level of corruption in our uh in our data
Agencies right now and I’m the data can’t be that wrong it can’t it cannot disconnect so much with announcements of companies that they’re closing and firing people these they don’t vanish Into Thin Air it’s not a figment of our Collective imagination but subsequent to uh the
Link that you’re going to drop with me and and Lacy we found out that July and August actually had positive revisions uh to the tune of I think 110,000 employees all government workers for the private payrolls they were revised down by 12,000 for those two months extending the run to nine
Months uh it I I’m I’m I’m a huge Patriot my my sophomore and College he graduated from Culver Military Academy I’ve got two sophomores and a senior at Culver milit Academy I love my country I stand for my flag I do but when the data begins to make somebody who was you know
Working in in the Soviet unions in the USSR when when it makes somebody from that era blush because it’s so obviously corrupted you get concerned because we are a country where there should be transparency in data and it shouldn’t be glossed over so there are some serious
Concerns right now with the data that that we’re seeing and with a lot of the fraud that that’s occurred I I speak we could speak for a whole half hour about the employee retention credit let’s just say that I’m happy that it’s on pause right now and I hope that the IRS ends
Up canceling it because it lined the pockets of high net worth people to begin with uh who were making fraudulent claims but this our our government is just not in a good place right now now and it’s not making policies that are going to safeguard the long-term health
Of the United States and I hope that that changes well as a patriot I commend you on your courage and I think you know and that’s one of the reasons why I think everybody should also read your book because um you know it probably I mean you probably thought long and hard
You after you wrote that book when you know is this a good idea should I do it shouldn’t I do it but so I I really thank you on that but let’s let’s turn our attention if we can just to you know kind of talk about the housing market uh
Because obviously I mean you know wages talking about wages the growth hasn’t kept up with home prices that have literally doubled since 2019 and historically I mean I don’t think we’ve ever seen anything like this housing market uh where it’s been so unaffordable since post World War II and
You know in most markets I think now it’s cheaper to rent than own you know and I don’t want to go down the I I have so many other questions I want to just ask and touch on but you know everybody’s talking about the world economic Forum I get a lot of comments
On my channel where people were like oh this is all part of the plan you know rent and be happy um do you think that we are in for a major housing crash well because you bring up the fact that it is so much more economical to to rent I’m
Good friends with zelman she has proprietary data on um on many things many aspects one of them is a monthly apartment operator survey that she runs and uh in terms of pricing power you’ve got two cities in America right now Philadelphia and Chicago that have pricing power in their apartment market
And that’s because developers didn’t go there because they were crime ridden but anywhere else where the 1.2 million units that’s come on in the last three years in addition to the 1 million units in the pipeline of Apartments tells you that Americans are home buying conditions have never
Been as low as they are and yet home sellers are still being told by way too many Realtors to hold out for a higher price so it’s but home buyers don’t have to they don’t and I I think that the buyer strike is going to be a very real
Thing because apartment renting is so much cheaper on a relative basis and you’re talking about luxury units first month free last month free blah blah blah incentives to try and get people in the door um rental appreciation for new movein is below where it was in the third quarter of
2019 end of story so um I do think that that housing is going to be uh in a severe and protracted correction you know it’s interesting you said that buyers are on strike or will go on strike they’re on strike I mean I’m talking to them I get so many buyers
That reach out to me all over the country because of our show and uh I mean they’re they’re slamming their foot down and I mean they are commanding the show right now we are seeing higher contract cancellations than we’ve ever seen uh you know I think 16% uh is what
They’re saying the national average in Atlanta Georgia it’s almost 25% in SE September of the contracts uh to purchase were just Flatout cancelled and a lot of these buyers and and you’re right I mean a lot of the problem is in my own industry I mean the cheerleading
The date theay you know don’t worry about it and one of the things that I want to kind of ask you um is that you know I mean Barbara corkran obviously you know who she is I mean look Danielle she’s going out and saying I mean talk
About being out of touch she’s actually saying guys don’t stop buying because when interest rates drop back down and have a five in front of them you know home prices are going to soore is exactly what she said and she said you know they’re going to go up 20% and I’m
Going I don’t think that we can afford this and you know and and and that’s why somehow in the back of my mind I’m saying you know we’re looking at it’s said that one in four single family houses are you know owned by institutional investors and you know you can thank the the
Crisis the global financial crisis for that all of those you know homes were bundled up fed to Wall Street they got their fangs in what it is like to be in residential housing and you know they’ve seen nothing but good times and you know since they bought on nickels on the
Dollar some experts are actually saying that by 2030 40% of the single family homes will be owned by institutional investors I mean what do you say about you know Barbara corkran cheerleading and you know do you think that it’s a possibility that we just won’t have any affordable single family
Houses well I mean bless her heart she’s talking her book that that’s never happened before um I think that I’m trying not to be too political here um I think that there are a lot of Americans who are younger than me don’t like to pay their
Bills and I I think that quite a few of them might vote so that they don’t have to pay their bills and if the government starts to hand out stimulus checks the same way that it did after the pandemic hit which was basically a a test study of universal basic income that failed
Um I think that if that happens we could see runaway inflation uh I mean the the dollar would get destroyed the country would be destroyed everything would be destroyed everything as we know it would would go to hell in a in a hand basket I hope
That doesn’t happen because I want my I want my children to grow up here and and have children and um but as things stand today if cooler heads prevail in Washington d there’s no way in hell prices are going to go up 40% what advice do you have for
Someone that is on the sidelines right right now hoping rent I mean I I heard you say you know wait I think uh one interview you said wait till 2025 or just kind of hold off I mean are you thinking that things will be better by
Then um I think that that A lot’s going to occur but between now and 2025 2025 is is a critical Milestone on the calendar because if there is a Blue Wave or if Donald Trump wins the election because he he invented socialism in America that was the cares
Act so um but the the reason I bring that up is because the earliest the earliest the soonest we’re going to see that type of stimulus is March of 2025 it’s a long way between now and then and between now and then there’s not going to be any helicopter money
Distributed to us households and that means that the household default cycle is finally arriving finally finally finally um you know even by next next October there’ll be millions of Americans who were either going to declare bankruptcy or start repaying their student loans if right now they’re
Not paying them because it doesn’t go on their credit report it’s coming so um there are there just aren’t places to hide right now if you’re a US household you’re either going to make good or you’re going to default and for a lot of Americans they’re going to end
Up defaulting and by the way for so many through no fault of their own you know when they bought that new home in July of 2022 and the home builder bought down the rate they believe that a year later in July of 2023 that mortgage rates
Would certainly not have gone up but yet they have so this is going to force a lot of hands and and it’s a tragedy that it’s going to force a lot of hands because people were hwi into thinking that you can date the rate and by the
Way if mortgage prices come back down to 5% that means that the feds panic because we’re in a deep recession so one thing over all things Trump’s mortgage rates and that’s whether or not you have a job well we thank you so much for your
Time I mean I we could we could talk to you for hours on end and uh Danielle why don’t you tell everybody I mean how can they follow you you know we’ll drop the links below I mean tell everybody how they can reach out so at Qi research um
We’re 2025 is our 10 year anniversary wow but we publish every day and um we we actually have a very reasonable uh newsletter that goes out um every trading day for 59 bucks a month my institutional clients scream because it’s too cheap but it is it is what it
Is so um come find me D Martino booth. sub.com D martino. sub.com and if you don’t already follow me on Twitter then you got to get out more so follow me at D Martino Booth because it’s always entertaining and by the way if you’re wondering yes I’m being
Sarcastic well look I can’t thank you enough thank you so much I hope that we get to do it again someday in the future and uh we’ll talk to you soon thank you I appreciate your time good good talk well I could have spoken with uh Danielle for hours upon hours and I
Think she’s very knowledgeable obviously I hope that you felt the same if you like the video you can smash that thumbs up to let Danielle and I both know that you did and guys cruise on over to Danielle subscribe to her Channel she puts out great content just like our
Interview and if you’re not subscribed to our Channel maybe take a moment and do so now hit the alert Bell you’ll be notified every time we upload content but guys the biggest thing that favor really that I need to ask of you right now is that this information is so
Important and we’re not hearing it in mainstream media if you would do me a personal favor and share this with at least another person one of your friends or family members that should be aware of what’s really going on see you next time sxy Maryland broker number 6077 20 office number 443
318451 4 Equal Housing Opportunity
