HARRIS COLLAPSE! They're Not Going to be Able to Turn 2024 Around!

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hello public opinion officient autos and welcome to rasm reports the independent pollster who accurately predicted the October collapse of kamla Harris’s campaign now we have to be very specific about what we mean here because everybody’s talking about a polling collapse but to be honest with you the polling hasn’t really changed much what’s collapsed is the media Nar of all these people Shilling for KLA Harris and carrying the Democrats water we knew that they weren’t going to be able to get her over the hump that the joy of the August DNC was only going to last so long because today’s voters have absolutely no trust in politicians no trust in institutions or DC and they crave more and more authenticity and competency and today we’re going to get into some of the fundamentals that helped me see personally that this was but don’t just take my word for it here is n grid on the excellent two-way show that’s been going on with Mark Halper and every morning I think Sean Spicer on there as well were in the early stages of watching her collapse says new grid of kamla Harris it’s just my hunch that sometime in the last two weeks Joe and Jill looked at each other and thought wouldn’t it be a great legacy if Joe’s the only one guy to ever beat Trump and I think the stuff he’s done to undermine her in the last 10 days is pretty amazing now it isn’t just her it’s also the press and some of kamla Harris’s biggest supporters like Chen yuger who’ve come out and admitted now that it looks really horrible for her but all of this has really only happened in the last couple of days but going to real clear politics here I mean again she’s been up basically two points over Trump this entire time going all the way back to really the first day or two of the DNC although it does look like her numbers are fading a little bit she’s been as high as 2.2 going back down to 1.8 but take a look at this right before the switcheroo Trump was actually beating Biden by almost three points Here and Now Harris is beating Trump by more than two points so the race has moved Five Points in her favor since the switch R but in my numbers Trump’s lead has only gone from about plus5 to about plus two in that time period I think that little extra two-point kiss for KLA Harris is coming from all these left-wing media pollsters who are most likely pulling 100% panel respondents who skew younger and less politically connected I have a hunch that extra two points is not going to turn out for her but again looking at the Topline numbers from eight years and four years ago the industry said that Clinton was going to win by six she won by barely two so that’s a four-point left polling Miss Biden was up 10 points in the polls he won by four a Sixpoint to the left polling Miss and what you’re going to see is people like Harry enton from CNN talk about oh sure the polls have had about a three or four point error going all the way back to 1972 and the polls could be wrong in either direction and if they’re wrong to the right Trump wins with over 300 electoral votes if they’re wrong to the left kamla Harris wins with over 300 electoral votes and what they’ll tell you is they’ll talk about you know the election with Romney and about how the pollsters underestimated Obama’s support or they’re talk about 2018 or 2020 where everybody predicted bigger Republican turnout than what actually materialized but what they won’t tell you is that in my opinion the reason that these left leing biases exist is because Trump is on the ticket and the establishment has an immune response to Donald Trump because of how antiestablishment he is and also because he motivates not just Republicans to turn out but also conservative Independents and crossover Democrats and those people get lost in the pollster waiting so that’s my theory of the case but I will say there have been very recent slightly positive signs for Trump in the polling that show me that maybe now the polling is going to catch up to the collapsing narratives Arizona Trump plus a half a point Nevada Trump plus point2 points read for the first time Wisconsin Trump only down three Michigan Trump up almost a point Pennsylvania Trump up point4 less than Michigan I don’t believe that’s going to happen North Carolina Trump up a half a point Georgia Trump up a half a point I don’t think these states are really all as close as Nao will tell you it’s either going to be a massive Miss to the right or a massive Miss to the left I think history tells us that these polls are all to left although some of the individual states probably have a bigger spread than what we’re seeing here the takeaway is every single one of these Battleground States except for Wisconsin is now going to Trump and also the betting markets as we showed in our previous video though it does look like KLA Harris is starting to get some momentum back in the overall 2024 election winner bet and if you look at the states Trump is up in all of them except Wisconsin and Nevada he’s tied in Wisconsin now Michigan just flipped in the last day or two Wisconsin’s probably going to flip next I don’t know if it’s just more Trump people making bets to try and push his numbers up or if it’s everybody interpreting the polls the same way I am too far to the left Trump is going to be winning every single Battleground state in the betting markets very soon but as I talked about let’s go into the fundamentals why at a very high level no matter what people fundamentally say about whether they’re going to vote for KLA Harris and Donald Trump there’s an aspect of momentum morale subconscious context that may drive people to turn out or not turn out more or less than they actually tell us in the polls and time and time again we see those having an impact on presidential elections here’s our snapshot page and this shows Joe Biden’s daily presidential approval rating these numbers are fresh as of today what I want to point out here is right track wrong direction people who aren’t educated on the polling industry might not know what this means but we asked the very first question we ask in our polls every time is the country on the right track or is it headed in the wrong direction ction and only 35% of the electorate says right track that’s a pretty low number Republicans it’s 19% but independent voters only 26% of them say the country is headed on the right track now I have Independence going to Trump right now between eight and 10 points most of the pollsters who show Harris winning have Independence going to Harris and maybe there’s something massively wrong wrong with my sample of Independence although I have a ton of reasons why I think there isn’t but even if I was off here let’s just say even by 10 points still only 36% of Independents say the country would be headed on the right track and almost 60% would say in the wrong direction those are just astoundingly bad numbers and usually with an electoral situation like this there is blowback for the incumbent and before we get into the other ones I just want to tune our horn a little bit there’s a lot of ways to measure pollster accuracy but don’t just take it from me we are really accurate I think this is out of 538 not exactly sure how they did this math but whatever we did really great the average polling error for us was 2.8 points that puts us in the top three here I think with Atlas Intel and tral really close to traler you know look a lot of people are touting some of these other companies like qu Pak is usually off by seven ABC News Washington Post which by the way 538 is owned by and is their number two ranked pollster has an average pulling error of 5.5 points and everybody talks about morning console and their super accurate large samples they’ve got a fivepoint average pulling error too and I think for some reason this is really understating how off they’ve been because they’ve had some really crazy calls oh wait that’s right it piles up on top of statistical bias so not only is there how off are you right and left on each of your individual polls but in the aggregate how off are your polls and since Trafalger shows a negative number here I’m pretty sure these are directional I’m pretty sure A Plus means a Miss to the left and notice how every single one of these except traler has a statistical bias to the left even us now I will say I think the true accuracy of the poll is over the long run where your statistical bias is at and I think we rank really highly right up there with Atlas Intel of only having a onepoint statistical bias look at this so morning consult polls on average are going to be five points off and also five points to the left I’m prettyy sure that’s how you read this and everybody’s talking about how they show Harris winning by five incredible okay more fundamentals this is the combined cross tab from our set of 10 State polls that we just did in September and we talked a lot about this because there were some fascinating information about news media consumption numbers and also note that it’s a Rel relatively I mean it’s deadlocked at 4848 in the combined 10 State set here and also you can get these cross tabs yourself at Rasmus reports.com search for American Thinker in the search tabs they’re open to the public but what I wanted to get into is this are you better off than you were four years ago and only 37% of these Battleground State voters say yes 53% say no 45% of 18 to 29 year olds they’re the most optimistic by far but it’s still only a bare plurality of them Nobody by race says yes with a majority and Democrats who are likely ecstatic to have their guy in the office only 59% of them say yes but it’s only 32% of battleground State Independence that number is incredibly low will today’s children better off than their parents only 22% say yes 51% say no 18 to 29y olds only 34% of them say yes that is just Bleak you know I have kids I want them to inherit a better world than me but only onethird of 18 to 29 year olds you know just getting out of high school taking on the world think that their life is going to be better than their parents that’s really sad only 35% of Democrats say yes only 14% of Republicans and Independence pull almost exactly like Republicans on this only 16% and here’s what’s crazy it’s not even a signal about income almost across the board only about you know two or three in 10 Americans Say Yes by income Evangelical Christians and atheists agree almost identically on this it’s really crazy I’ll tell you though people who watch CNN and MSNBC are more likely than everybody else to say yes it’s still only onethird of them only 6% of Newsmax viewers say yes to this question but this is fascinating we asked people which issue is the most important one for the next president to solve and only give them gave them four choices abortion illegal immigration Rising prices and protecting our democracy and people who think abortion rights are the number one issue the president needs to solve 38% of them a really high number say yes that today’s children will be better off than their parents I guess they mean specifically the ones who haven’t been aborted is America safer than it was four years ago only 27% of battleground voters say yes 62% say no by party it’s only 44% of Democrats 12% of Republicans 24% of Independents only 29% of black voters only 27% of 18 to 29 year olds these people are invincible obviously but they know that the Biden Administration was not good for the safety of everyday Americans now there’s a lot of other stuff in this particular poll we could get into but I want to talk about this you know kamla Harris was just on the cover of Vogue she’s hanging out with all these cool actors and actresses and drinking beers on late night TV she’s got to be the face of a fresh start and a new Direction correct well when considering the general conditions in the country which is closer to your feeling America needs more of the same or a fresh start in a New Direction overwhelmingly Americans want change 73% a massive number pretty much a historical record say that we need a fresh start in a New Direction but 20% say more of the same more Democrats than anybody else say more the same but it’s only onethird of them 33% how’s that for your legacy Joe Biden 12% of Republicans and 14% of independent say more the same massive numbers 84% and 76% say a fresh start in a New Direction people are hurting during the Biden Administration they they are demanding something something new although what’s fascinating is Joe Biden’s strong approvers 47% of them do say we just need more of the same can I have some more please as a presidential candidate does KLA Harris offer more of the same or a fresh start in a New Direction 58% of Voters say more of the same only 37% say a fresh start in a New Direction only 59% of Democrats say she’s a fresh start in a New Direction and independent say more of the Same by 62 to 30 so tell me again Reuters tell me again morning consult how KLA Harris is winning among Independents even if I’m off a decent amount Independence overwhelmingly in my polling say the K Harris offers more the same and not a fresh start in a New Direction when almost unanimously Independents say they want a fresh start in a New Direction as a presidential candidate does Donald Trump offer more of the same or fresh start in a New Direction and Fresh Start wins here 52% only 39% of Voters say he’s more the same and he’s basically like kind of an incumbent he was already president only 62% of Democrats say Trump is more of the same 80% of Republicans say he’s a fresh start in a New Direction tell me again you know MSNBC how you think Republican voters are clamoring for new leadership how anybody but Donald Trump could have done better no this is voters telling you that Donald Trump is the new face of leadership that they want and apparently Independents do as well although you can clearly see the revulsion for comma Harris is higher here 54% of independent say Donald Trump is a fresh start a new Direction 36% say more of the same now there’s tons and tons of polling we can look at I’ll just take this one out too as like a sign of competence voters overwhelmingly say the situation with migrants at the US Mexican border is a crisis that’s why depending on when we PLL it’s either the number one or number two issue and President Joe Biden assigned vice president K Harris to lead the administration’s efforts to control migration at the southern border of the US how would you rate the job she did as the borders are we don’t say borders are but 31% of Voters say she did excellent or good only 12 % excellent 48% say poor a combined total of 63% of Voters say she did a fair or poor job and with Independence 70% of them say fair or poor a majority of Independents say poor and how important will her role in the Biden administration’s border policy be in determining how you vote in this presidential election 60% of Voters say important 40% say very important a majority of independent say important and 70% of Republicans and even 60% of Democrats although some of them like clearly obviously like the job she did which which is basically nothing all right one more thing to look at we are polling more than any company except morning consult and we don’t blow all of our budget just in the last three months before election we actually pull continuously between cycle and cyc so now we have accumulated almost 10 years of polling against Donald Trump and a Democrat and everybody can look at our numbers and say no Joe Biden won with Independence in 2020 and now you show him winning big with Independence clearly you just broke your process between now and then and jerked everything to the right and the answer to that is no our process hasn’t changed and we as I said pulled continuously and watched continuously as nearly every core Democrat demographic shifted big to the right but here’s just this Cycle’s polling and this is updated as of yesterday’s Trump plus two win and it looks like KLA has kind of hit a ceiling and Donald Trump is capturing that magical 49 you know 48 to 49% number he’s earned those followers over the last 10 years and at this point if you take the Donald Trump red pill I really don’t see any amount of Miller High Life drinking on TV making you change your mind and yeah things swung all over the place until we got into election season but I mean these numbers I’m really confident in because we were pretty correct in the last two cycles and it looks like Donald Trump is actually winning the national popular vote assuming that you know we don’t have more than our traditional onepoint statistical bias I mean we might be off but it should only be a little bit folks and of course the margins of eror are overlapping here but these are a lot of samples you know if I aggregated to these together I’m pretty sure these results would be outside the margin of error of maybe like a month’s worth of data speaking of which here are the five period moving averages which each you know data point is averaging five roughly 1,500 to 2,000 person polls so you can imagine there’s about a onepoint margin of error here and if you look at 2016 nailed it if you look at 2020 kind of nailed it a little bit too favorable to to Biden for sure and here we are with Donald Trump being above the Blue Line like he has never been before in any of the previous two cycles and this is the story that we’ve been saying over and over to people and again like we did not change anything in our polling the Biden Administration changed people’s minds and I’m pretty sure the mainstream media pollsters are Shilling for the Democrats and only now allowing that narrative to slip out but let’s start with Hispanic voters now the five period moving averages here are a lot more noisy because these are small sub subsamples every time I go and get about 2,000 voters only you know 260 of them are going to be Hispanic but again in any one cycle we’re looking at thousands of respondents and look at the heavy dark lines those are the moving averages Hillary Clinton at the end really clinched the Hispanic vote and won by Massive margins in 2020 it looks like Trump won it and I’ll tell you the Hispanic vote is hard to nail I’m not trying there’s only so much I can do to get this to be accurate although I think uh it was probably the reverse of this I think Trump maybe lost by almost 10 points I forget what the exit polling said but the point is is that look at this trend over the last decade the red line keeps getting higher and higher and the blue line keeps getting lower and lower we’ve had actually had some individual polls that have showed Trump in the 60s with Hispanic voters again we’re not doing Spanish language polls don’t know how many legal aliens are voting in elections but if the trend continues I think what we’ll see at the end of this cycle is probably something close to a tie among Hispanic voters which would be cataclysmal for Democrats because they counted on all these Hispanic people that they brought across the border giving them a permanent super majority just like black voters now same caveats apply as Hispanic voters I think the point is we’re going to be directionally correct here and Donald Trump is getting more of the black vote now than he ever has although you can see the Blue Line creep up there at the right KLA Harris definitely is capturing more of the black vote than Joe Biden is she is still not doing as well as Biden did in the last cycle and if there are low propensity voters that aren’t showing up in the polls that are going to break Trump this is one of those places where it might come from we do overestimate Trump support in the black vote for sure but in this cycle maybe we won’t anymore the point is is that in our polling Trump was taking home in the teens eight years ago and now he’s taking he’s doubled his 40s in the 30s and finally 18 to 39y olds Hillary Clinton absolutely mopped the floor with younger voters winning by almost looks like over 20 points just barely over 20 points and now and now it looks like a neck-and-neck tie there was a lot of time when Trump was winning with these people but it really does look like the Taylor Swift Joy Vibe stuff that’s probably leaking into Instagram is a affecting these people and again maybe I’m getting Instagram viewers and not Tik Tok viewers and it’s really hard to know whether my sample lean’s more married than single or vice versa but the point here again is inexorably Trump is doing better and better with younger voters I think Co woke him up a lot I think that’s why there was such a difference between 2016 in 2020 and KL Harris briefly jumped up to where Hillary Clinton ended and Joe Biden appears to have ended as well but just recently her numbers have started to fade too I think that’s the authenticity thing I think that’s a response bias of younger voters dying off after all of those Positive Vibes are fading away so I’ll repeat what I said before I think Donald Trump is winning I think other posters like us who are accurate show that Donald Trump is winning I think there’s a question about directionally how much and I think that a solid Trump win that leads to an electoral college victory of over 300 votes does right now depend on how much of a leftward leaning polling bias there is in the swing States and maybe we won’t actually see it and we’re just totally off but I think there’s a ton of other validation points that show that the polling is to the left again because Republicans are doing really well across the country with new registered voters Democrats are doing worse than they were in 2020 with with mail ballot requests and returns and ultimately what it comes down to is there’s still about 3 weeks left until the election and if the next three weeks look like this last week for KLA Harris I mean I think it’s going to be a Donald Trump blowout although I will mention that we have entered October surprise season eight years ago the Access Hollywood tape was dumped on October 7th though so far all it seems like we’ve seen is performance reviews from KLA Harris’s law firm and a bunch of horrible stuff about her husband Doug mhof maybe just maybe over the last 10 years somebody’s saved up some stuff about Trump and they’re going to drop it now I don’t know but what I can tell you is election cheaters don’t go salivating over North Carolina I’m in the field right now and I’m going to see what North Carolina voters think of the federal response to the hurricane who they blame and how it’s going to affect the election so follow us so you don’t miss it on Twitter at rasmusen Poole or you can follow my account at markor RoR Mitchell I put out a lot cheekier stuff and there’s some more cat memes and all that kind of stuff also make sure you like the video and subscribe on YouTube Rumble and thanks for watching

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Social Media and Cable News: Platforms or Gatekeepers?

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HARRIS COLLAPSE! They’re Not Going to be Able to Turn 2024 Around!

Truly Right View: Advocating for Free Speech in the Age of Political Censorship

Introduction: What is Free Speech Today?

The Constitutional Perspective: Why Free Speech is Non-Negotiable

Social Media and Cable News: Platforms or Gatekeepers?

Social Media Influencers: Fighters for Freedom or Puppets of Censorship?

The Dangers of Socialism, Communism, and Fascism: A Threat to Free Speech

The Truly Right View: Defending Freedom in the Digital Age

Join the Fight: Sign Up for Our Channel and Newsletter

Will You Speak Up or Stay Silent?

NEW TRUMP POLL: Slow-motion Train Wreck as the World Accepts Harris is LOSING!

NJ Democrats Protect “Freedom” to Give Obscene Material to Children – Liberty Sentinel

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