IT BEGINS! The Media Turns on Kamala Harris and Now She's LOSING to Trump

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hello public opinion officient AOS and welcome to Ras musin reports the independent pollster and apparently media analyst who exactly predicted what would unfold this very chaotic Monday morning as the wheels fall off the kamla Harris campaign and the few mainstream media Outlets with a shred of credibility left realign themselves to introduce their viewers to a New Concept kamla Harris might actually lose and that’s because we’ve been telling you for a long time the polling has not been good for her at all but polling is hard to interpret and mainstream media Outlets can cherry-pick and Duck and word Smith and create whatever kind of narrative they want but ultimately what it comes down to at some point they’re going to want to retain their viewers they’re going to have to signal that this race really the momentum is going all for Trump now I want to start with the real cck politics aggregate which at a national level has Harris pretty much stuck at about 2.1 points it’s really been flat there and I’ll note that basically they have Trump at a 47o ceiling Harris at about a 49 point ceiling almost the exact opposite of what I currently have right now but whatever the point is going back eight years this is three points worse than Hillary Clinton was doing at this same point in the cycle and going back just four years years Joe Biden was favored in the polls by like 10 points so she isn’t really close to either of these situations now you’ll look at us and you’ll say oh look you’re the only red and you know that’s because some of the other highquality pollsters who agree with us haven’t put been putting out polls as frequently I think you’ll see some trogers Atlas intels and probably even New York Times pop back up showing a trump positive race here but look Yahoo news just came out with a poll that shows a tie one of the other things I want to point out here is just there’s not a lot of polling we’re a month out from a hotly contested election and the pollsters just don’t really seem to be that interested and I’ll tell you these last two polls which finished polling Friday they could have dropped Friday and been picked up in the Sunday news cycle but but they didn’t seem to want these results talked about in mainstream media news outlets and let’s take a quick look at why here are the Yahoo news results and Yahoo shows a tied race but very importantly I’ll say that a month ago just after the presidential debate they hit Harris up 50% to 45% now again polls swing around because of statistical noise but that’s a really big movement one could Wonder was she really up 50 to 45 back then I don’t especially when the previous polling was really a lot closer maybe it was just an outlier but what I also wanted to point out here too I couldn’t find cross tabs I didn’t look very hard but again we see the same kind of pattern of them yeah here put another way walon’s favorable rating is still three points higher than his unfavorable rating so he’s above water three points but Vance is still 11 points lower see he’s underwater 11 so they gave Tim Waltz a 14-point favorable advantage in this poll which means to me that they’re pulling really blue Democrats really blue Republicans and probably left leaning Independents as well and yet they still show the race tide with this incredible sandbag I’ll tell you people really don’t know that much about Waltz and Vance And if you have a negative opinion of JD Vance right now it’s basically because you watch MSNBC I mean really that’s what it comes down to so I don’t think they’re getting a representative sample of America now we can also look at this one here now people call the these guys a highquality pollster from previous Cycles but I will say their methodology this time around seems a little bit different I’m not sure if they’re using different people for field work I know it’s 100% panel now and the previous ones were not but again there’re showing the race going to Harris by three points and a ton of leftward movement they had the race only Harris plus one in August but ultimately what it comes down to look at this look at their independent results they have Harris winning among Independents by 16 points I think that’s more than even Biden won independence by in the 2020 exit polling numbers again our results I’ll just look at them quick here are the cross tabs from last week again for the fourth week in a row we showed Donald Trump beating KLA Harris 49 points to 47 points and winning independent by a pretty strong seven so we have a totally different view of Independence than them and I guess we’ll find out who’s right but if their independence looked like ours they’d have obviously Trump up massively as well so this is not a good situation for kamla Harris look even Quinn aak has a tide in the National popular vote this is the best Trump’s been doing in the National polling in like the last decade and I think Republicans are going to find themselves in a really strange spot actually having you know the upper hand in October now I don’t think that Trump voters are going to get complacent or anything or it’s going to affect the way that people turn out but really it’s crazy it might change the race in ways that we’re not able to predict because it almost seems like the Democrats are used to having that Higher Ground they’re used to the unified view that they’re voting for The Winner and that they’re the majority view in America and that is not the case this time around we’re going to have to see how it plays out but here is Pennsylvania and I’ve been saying this over and over again anybody who knows polling can look at this page and says that this pretty much tells us that Trump is going to win Pennsylvania is a must-win state for kamla Harris and it’s an exact tie here there’s some good pollsters that show Trump up traler plus three Atlas Intel Trump plus three Emerson’s pretty good maybe slightly left leaning they have the race of tie we had the race of tie as well but look at this four years ago the polling showed that Biden was going to win by seven points he won by slightly more than one so this is like a five and a half Sixpoint polling Miss and then eight years ago Hillary Clinton lost Pennsylvania but it said she was winning at this point in the race by seven and a half that is I mean you know getting up there in the sort of 9-point pulling error range if there is any leftward pulling error at all Donald Trump is winning the race which is why we’ve been watching poly Market because for the longest time the real play politics page has shown that deadlock and so has poly markets now I I definitely think that this betting Market is manipulated but this is a very unnatural neck and neck like 49 50% for almost a month and all of the sudden after the vice presidential debate the market broke and Donald Trump is running away with it now leading by 11 points in polym markets in Pennsylvania in my opinion this is the first Domino to fall in a media rearrangement around a new narrative that KLA Harris is the underdog and that’s what I expected to play out this week and is exactly what we’re seeing but not only did Pennsylvania break I mean listen you can interpret polls a lot of different ways there’s no other way to interpret this than Donald Trump is winning the election right now and if you go and look at this look at this sea of red he’s up soundly in Arizona Georgia Pennsylvania now pretty sure that Wisconsin or Michigan are going to be the next one to flip I bet you we’ll even see some right look at that look at how much the race closed now I think there’s probably a lot of volume a lot of trading going on here maybe some dark money being put to work but these markets can really only hold out so long and we saw that on the national scale as well let me rewind this this is what played out just this morning so again for a longest time for like a month the race has been back and forth comma Harris Got up after her debate and you know it’s really been kind of range Bound in the 49 to 50 point range but then all of a sudden this morning out of nowhere Donald Trump was creeping up you know to a few points lead and then there was this like flash Spike of buying for Donald Trump and he was up almost 10 points looks like there’s been some oscillations but Trump is now up a pretty steady seven or eight points here in poly markets he is winning in the betting markets that is in possible to misinterpret for even the most simplest Minds within the mainstream media so what are the ramifications of how that plays out you’re starting to see cracks appear you’re starting to see little hints by these people the ones that can give them that you know the bubble you’re in might not be correct you might be in an echo chamber there is a chance that KL Harris is actually incompetent and unlikable like the polls told us all before the end of July CNN’s Harry Anton illustrates what the Electoral College could look like if the polls are off like they were in 2020 and 2016 what a profound time to question this back in 2020 the polls underestimated Donald Trump if that happens again Donald Trump carries all these Great Lakes Battleground States carries Nevada Arizona Georgia and North Carolina as well he gets 312 electoral votes bottom line if we hit an era like we did four years ago Donald Trump is going to win this election KLA Harris is going to lose now I don’t know if the pulling error is as bad as it was four years ago but I mean just looking at the cros tabs over and over again and these suppression polls the average industry error is certainly still left then there’s this I mean like I said some media Outlets can do it some can’t and it looks like MSNBC is digging in for a trump win insurance policy accusing Donald Trump of preparing the country for a civil war these people are absolutely insane but then you have this this to me reminds me of there’s this reek of consumed product you know of like Hollywood marketing that KLA Harris’s campaign just exudes you know they put all this money into a movie they did the best they can but it’s definitely got some woke stuff but they really needed to succeed so what do they do they put out talking points they focus on those talking points but if there’s literally anybody who Strays Outside the Lines they attack him as racist misogynist whatever NBC’s Andrea Mitchell blames diverse multi-racial racial misogyny Harris has such a problem with men I think there’s an undercount of the Trump vote I think that there’s mogy in all of this huh incredible then he got this New York Magazine KL is come down how the Harris campaign became a grim slog that’s not what you want about your campaign from a left leing magazine going into October it’s incredible and then there’s this which in my opinion absolutely defies all explanation cbs’s 60 Minutes is having KLA Harris on for an interview tonight and the previews that they put out are just absolutely cataclysmic for kamla hunting on the question about Netanyahu word salad answers they asked her about her economic plan and then pressed her on how she would actually pay for it and then like impli that her solution wasn’t real world this is a CBS that just a week ago like went all in on kamla Harris by factchecking only one candidate in the vice presidential debate and their polling has been Shilling for the Democrats hard in some of their polls they had carry Lake down like 13 points in Arizona which is not going to happen so I really have no idea what’s going on here are there really going to kill the Camala Harris campaign in the crib tonight on 60 Minutes I guess maybe could just be a ploy for ratings and then there’s this one out of aan CNN Harris’s border visit and economy speech capture attention as warning signs emerge for campaign not what you want anybody saying about you in October I mean this is just stunning you’re going to see more and more of this all week I think it’s going to be a horrible week for her and the momentum like how is she going to turn it around like I said before they need an act of God because this campaign this woman her policies her plans do not have enough substance to get them to election day but let’s talk about the pollsters Scott Adams said something very astute today the polling true up begins now and you know my comment is some will true up but others will just disappear they’re just going to sit October out and take their licks and hope that they do better next time I guess but others are going to move right and we already see some signs of some people retroactively moving their stuff to the right if everybody who’s been following me remembers back back in August I came on and absolutely ranted about New York Times Sienna who dropped the swing state polls in the middle of basically a zero polling period that showed that Donald Trump was doing very poorly in the swing States now when I went in and looked you could tell that literally every single one of those States was over L with Biden 2020 supporters and I called them out for it they had the numbers they knew that really the headline numbers were more Trump support than they actually reported and we see that we do oversample Trump supporters and we actually do correct with the recalled vote but in an act of I don’t know what it is Nate con from New York Times I guess he’s preparing his viewers that you know Trump is actually doing better than even our top lines at the New York Times Sienna poll suggest he showed what all of their polls to date this cycle would look like if they did wait for the recalled vote and we’re talking about Harris plus4 in Pennsylvania going to Trump plus one Michigan going two points to the right to Trump plus one Wisconsin three points to the right to Trump plus one North Carolina Trump plus six now yeah right North Carolina’s in play Arizona actually going the other way but then Georgia going from Trump plus4 to Trump plus six and everybody calls them a Battleground now you could say all right well at least you could look at the cross tabs and say this or at least you could like look at his reporting and say okay whatever but all of these numbers on the left here are what went into the real clear politics aggregate the industry leans left that’s it Trump is winning and on that note I will bring up our most recent overnight results that have now been expanded to nearly 500 we’re actually going to get over 500 I think tonight and do that for the rest of the timeout between on Election Day so that should tighten the uh crazy swings that people have been complaining about but again these are small individual samples not a poll so we expect a bunch of statistical noise but it doesn’t seem like there’s been that much noise last night because Trump is still up a stunning Five Points over KLA Harris he was up seven points the last night we pulled Thursday night although KLA Harris had a night where she was up by three and the moving average are diverging again so I don’t know if this means that this week on Thursday we’re going to see something more like a trump plus three I guess we got to wait and see but just so you know I mean I’m doing everything I need to I’m waiting by gender age race and party I’m also rating by region now to make sure we get good regional coverage and I’m waiting by the 2020 recalled vote forcing a minus four sandbag to Trump supporters in my poll waiting them 49% Biden to 45% Trump and still here we are and it’s all because of the massive swing in Independence we’ve seen over the last four years due to the horrible Joe Biden presidential Administration so I hope everybody learns something and follows me for the rest of election season even after because I can’t wait to get back into all the issue polling that we do when all the horse race stuff is gone and it might get kind of fun here because I think we’re going to see a lot of like you know morning quarterbacks and Minds exploding and a lot of hilarious stuff to point and laugh at but quite frankly we could also see some major surprises here again if you’re a trump supporter you probably just do whatever you keep on doing I’m doing this as a public service because I just hate it when mainstream media Outlets lie to everybody if you agree please like the video follow us on YouTube at rasor Poole or at Rumble if that’s your thing follow us on X not Twitter at Rasmus poll as well or at markor rore Mitchell and thanks for watching

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