The Federal Reserve Bank

Federal Reserve economists still expect a recession starting later this year, according to minutes from the June Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) policy meetings. The economic forecast put together by staff at the policy meeting “continued to assume that the effects of the expected further tightening in bank credit conditions, amid already tight financial conditions” would trigger a “mild recession”...

LONDON/SINGAPORE—The dollar fell slightly against the yen on Tuesday as markets remained on high alert for signs of Japanese intervention, but the broader market was placid with U.S. traders off for a public holiday. The greenback was down 0.18 percent at 1104 GMT to 144.44 yen, after rising 0.27 percent on Monday. However, the yen remained close to last week’s...

Commentary Estimates of U.S. growth have improved, but remain massively below the Federal Reserve’s projections. After the largest monetary and fiscal stimulus in recent years, growth remains well below trend and debt is significantly higher. It is interesting to hear Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen say that “trickle-down economics did not work,” when in reality this is the failed trickle down:...

KevinHyde/iStock/Getty Images Plus It’s a seductive appeal: “Soak the rich!” “Make them pay their fair share!” “Get your piece of the pie!” As Norway is proving with its “wealth tax,” however, there’s a simple reason why this doesn’t work: The rich will simply take their pie to greener (and less meaner) pastures. In fact, ever since Norway’s Labor Party won...

U.S. consumer spending stalled in May to the lowest growth rate this year as inflation remained elevated. Consumer spending or personal consumption expenditures (PCE) only rose by 0.1 percent in May, according to a June 30 news release (pdf) by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). This is the lowest growth rate so far in 2023, equal to that...

SINGAPORE/LONDON—The yen briefly weakened past the closely watched 145 per dollar level on Friday although traders’ fears of intervention by Japanese authorities kept it in check, while the dollar was also strong more broadly ahead of U.S. inflation data. Barring unexpected interventions, the day’s main event for FX markets is the U.S. personal consumption expenditure price index, which will be...

Nearly two thirds of the countries in the world are now “exploring” central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) at one level or another, a new report says. The report, published on Wednesday by Washington-based think tank Atlantic Council, reveals that a total of 130 countries—representing 98 percent of global economy—are taking steps to convert their central bank money into digital form....

LANCASTER, N.H.—As its motto suggests, the “Live Free or Die” state is already pretty friendly to liberty-minded Americans—enough that the Free State Project has enticed scads of libertarians to move there. It’s also one of the few places where a critical mass of Free Staters could influence politics. The population, though fast-growing, remains low, and its state legislature is a...

The major American banks will be facing the Federal Reserve’s annual stress tests this week, to see if they have enough capital in a potential crisis to make the grade. Despite the recent bank crisis this year, the lenders are are believed to have enough capital to weather a severe economic downturn., say analysts, but investor payouts are expected to dip...

Commentary Allow me to explain why we have not seen a recession yet, despite the collapse in base money supply. We are witnessing the stealth nationalization of the economy. What does this mean? The entire burden of the monetary collapse and rate hikes is falling on the shoulders of families and small businesses, while large corporations and governments are virtually...

Former FDIC chair says regulators had all the power they needed to spot, solve regional bank problems In the wake of the failure of several regional banks, lawmakers are furiously at work drafting new bills to give regulatory authorities more control over banks. But some experts say that bank regulators already had all the power they needed, but failed to...

Since real estate brokerage Redfin started taking records, fewer homes were available for sale in the United States in May 2023 than in any other month. The number of homes for sale declined by 7.1 percent year-over-year in May 2023 on a seasonally adjusted basis to 1.4 million units, according to a June 21 Redfin press release. This is the...

LONDON—The Swiss franc fell on Thursday after the Swiss National Bank (SNB) hiked its benchmark interest rate, while the Norwegian crown surged after a bolder Norges Bank move. The SNB raised its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 1.75 percent, defying some market expectations of a bigger increase. Despite an easing in Swiss inflation, currently the lowest among...

From the latest dot plot released by the Federal Reserve, the mode value of funds rate implies two more hikes of a quarter percent by yearend. However, careful examination shows there are more dots below the mode than above. Taking into account the dovish tone by chairman Powell, the market does not believe this and still expects only one more...

In the most significant bipartisan response since the banking turmoil this past spring, the Senate Bank Committee approved legislation to claw back compensation from bank executives after their financial institutions fail. The Recovering Executive Compensation from Unaccountable Practices (RECOUP) Act reins in the banking industry by imposing new fines for misconduct, restricting failed executives from working in the financial sector,...

U.S. industrial production unexpectedly slipped in May, after two months of gains. Factories in the mid-Atlantic region saw a decline in activity for the first time since 2021 in June, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. Production fell 0.2 percent last month, as manufacturing struggled under the weight of higher interest rates, after a 0.5 percent rise in...

Commentary The Federal Open Market Committee’s unanimous decision on Wednesday not to raise the federal funds rate, which banks charge each other for overnight loans, has champagne corks popping in some quarters, where it is hailed as evidence of the long-in-coming conquest of inflation; while others see Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell turning chicken in the face of a long-term...

NEW YORK—Wall Street closed out its best week since March with a quiet finish on Friday, and stocks drifted to modest losses. The S&P 500 fell 16.25 points, or 0.4 percent, to 4,409.59 after wobbling through the day. It still closed out a fifth straight winning week for its longest such streak since November 2021, and it remains close to...

Silicon Valley Bank, established in 1983, was the 16th largest commercial bank in the United States just before it collapsed. It provided banking services to nearly half the U.S. venture capital-backed technology and life sciences companies. SVB had benefited extraordinarily from the explosive growth of the technology sector in recent years, leveraged by very low borrowing costs and a boom...

High mortgage rates and low inventory plague the housing market with prospective buyers showing high degrees of purchase reluctancy The number of homes for sale has declined from pre-COVID-19 pandemic levels, with high mortgage rates discouraging prospective sellers from putting their properties on the market, said real estate brokerage Redfin. There are now 39 percent fewer homes for sale on...