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electric vehicles are exciting and there’s a lot more of them now there’s going to be a lot more of them in the future so it’s uh there you one gets labeled as being antie by pointing out the problems not with electric vehicles but with mandates that you could only buy and run electric vehicle which is what 12 states are are planning to do and which is what will happen if the EPA uh gets its way this is maybe it should be self-evident a really bad idea uh it’s a really a bad idea not because EVS aren’t fun to drive it’s because they’re expensive and they’re going to stay expensive for a long time compared to the average car they’re inconvenient for most drivers not all and they increase our dependence on Imports and China specifically these are all not good things to force on the economy cars are amazing machines first that this I think there’s an underappreciate in the chattering classes if you like of how amazing cars are and I don’t think it’s under appreciated globally for people don’t have cars or for whether you’re a millennial a gen Z or a Gen X people appreciate cars because they want one in fact the idea that we’re becoming a postar culture isn’t true we don’t see it in the data and you don’t see it in surveys fact you don’t even see it in global surveys what you find in fact is that the the rising generation you know the Gen Z’s want to buy cars uh and they really do want to buy cars they they overwhelmingly want to buy cars the reason that they don’t buy cars immediately as they can’t afford them so EVS are expensive because of how they’re made and so on average an EV is going to be a car for wealthier family and garage makes it easy to to charge it overnight because that’s how long it takes to refuel them in expensively the essence of the problem is there’s a myth about EVS being simpler that’s the essence of the problem they aren’t simpler they’re differently complicated so you a regular car has a complicated internal combustion an engine with hundreds of moving Parts in a simple fuel tank with one moving part the fuel pump an EV flips that complexity it has a simple drive system electric motor typically one or two with one or two moving Parts but it’s fuel tank the battery is enormous for a typical EV it weighs a, pounds has hundreds if not thousands of Parts the parts actually move they just move microscopically it’s chemicals it has a cooling system Safety Systems Power Electronics structural systems it’s a very complicated engine but it’s an electrochemical engine instead of a thermodynamic engine if you like so you just swap complexities and where where do you get the materials to make the battery because the battery has to be assembled and made from all kinds of materials not just lithium for a lithium battery self-evidently that’s the that’s the smallest um mineral component in the battery the the biggest component are things like graphite and and aluminum and nickel and copper and a lot of chemicals well you know you have to assemble all these things it’s a very complicated machine as I said thousands of Parts thousands of welds it turns out it’s very expensive you know the the whole idea of uh forcing EVS on people and subsidizing them so the inflation reduction act has massive subsidies bigger than most people realize that roughly speaking they will subsidize EVS to the tune of about $30,000 per car and even with those subsidies they’re losing $50,000 a car you can do the math as they say this is not a smart thing for automakers to do but the whole purpose of This Is Anchored In sort of the two sort of cannons of the eeve eveve Orthodoxy right they have two Central cannons one is if we make people use lots of EVS will cut a lot of oil use because burning oil emits carbon dioxide but the goal is to cut oil use that’s the Canon when then and they don’t burn oil right I mean obviously so I guess if you have lots of BBS self-evidently you’ll cut oil use the second uh Canon is that the EVS will um be easier to make they’re cheaper and they have you know low low environmental impacts so first of all there’s arithmetic on this we know how many cars are in the world we know how much oil is used for cars and other things even if half of the world’s cars were EVs and we’re not going to come close to that any time in the foreseeable future it would reduce Global oil use by just 10% the idea that this is uh somehow a clean and um environmentally benign technology is just um well you could you could be polite and call it myopia again back to the battery weighs about 1,000 lbs uh to make the battery you have to get the copper and the nickel and the aluminum and the manganese and the graphite Cobalt you have to mine that stuff somewhere and refine it but this is how it works out in those kinds of metals and minerals to make a 1,000lb battery somewhere on Earth 500,000 lounds of rock have been dug up for One battery for one car all that digging up that 500,000 pounds of rock is duck up with big machines that burn oil it’s transported by big machines that burn oil The Rock has to be crushed with big machines in most of the world that burn coal to run the electricity for the machines and in some parts of the world that burn natural gas then you have to use hydrocarbons oil and gas to make the chemicals dissolve The Rock to get the chemicals out this whole supply chain involves using hydrocarbons hidden from your car so in effect there is a tailpipe for EVS it’s just elsewhere they emit carbon dioxide elsewhere they cause pollution elsewhere in other countries and apparently environmentalists who used to say it’s one Earth we worry about the planet uh only care about the planet in their garage they don’t care about the planet in Africa where the environmental challenges occur and where we push all the Social Challenges in the fragile economies it’s a it’s you know fundamentally it’s a bad trade for the United States economically it’s actually a bad trade for the environment and you could say in many ways it’s an immoral trade a lot of what most people have done they did um in the election which is um you know a shift in init in political philosophy I mean simplistically speaking the the Democratic party had moved to we know better we’re in charge we’re staus and we want you all to drive EVS the Republican Party simplistically put uh mostly I hope by a majority you know uh are against uh heavy-handed subsidies you know you don’t find Republicans saying they want to pollute the air no one no one thinks that way anymore but they’re against heavy-handed subsidies mandates and pushing Industries and forcing consumers to make choices that they don’t want to make so if you’re a citizen your your real opportunity on these things is is frankly anchored in the electoral process you get to choose a team that has a different approach if you want to know how to pick the team from the Viewpoint of cars and those it’s remarkably easy to prove all the things that I’ve said and written you don’t have to be an engineer or a scientist you don’t have to I’m a physicist I find it fascinating not everybody finds these things fascinating but it’s not hard to figure it out you can go to Google Google actually doesn’t lie if you type in you know where does copper come from how much copper is in a car how much Rock do you have to dig up to get copper for that car so it’s it’s remarkably easy to get the facts but you have to do a little work um the consequence of that is maybe the other thing says can do and they’re doing it anyway is they’re not buying the cars I mean people buy Teslas and again it’s a terrific car the ability to build a car that works it works well it’s safe it’s fun to drive it sells into into the deserting luxury car market one heck of an achievement impressive terrific car but people are free to buy it and and they have bought it and they will continue to buy it and the other automakers are desperate to compete with them because he’s stealing their Market in the luxury car category but this is like saying uh sport car sports cars are going to replace every kind of automobile in in the in the world sports cars are specialty cars electric cars are specialty cars they’re not a revolution this Trope that EVS are revolutionary is like saying oh I changed the food for a horse on a horse and buggy that’s a revolution it’s still a horse if you change the food for a car it’s still a car uh but it has other options other features that are kind of fun people people like that so options in cars are what all auto dealers like and car salesman like to have you can have an eveve option you can have a diesel option you can have a high horsepower option you can have an off-road option I mean there’s a thousand options in cars or thousands so I think what’s happened is citizens are voting with their pocketbook by and large EV sales are down in Europe 20% this year they’re down in the United States 20% this year so the growth rates not only slowed it’s rever reversed I think it’ll pick back up and start to tick back up is especially as there’s fire sales in all the overbuilt EVS it’d be a great time to buy to buy an EV I guess although I would still for me I’d lease it because you know those of all of us are sophisticated uh car buyers in America when you buy the car you own it which means it’s residual value when you’ve used it for is is your issue if you lease a car the residual value is the other guy’s problem and it’s hard to guess what the res idual value of an EV is going to be in three or four years so but they’ll be worth something and those will get sold too they’ll be sold into other markets they’ll be moved overseas um and they’ll be sold inexpensively which would be great for people with lower incomes and they’ll have a way to get to work so in a sense all this destruction of capital by wealthy countries will benefit some poorer countries unintentionally but it’s really uh it really is fundamentally a destruction of capital because it’s our money it’s you know taxpayers are paying for this big mistake
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