TRUMP WINS: Better Off Than 2016 and 2024, Wins Popular Vote

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hello public opinion offici AOS and welcome to rasmon reports the independent and accurate pollster who has now put the 2024 election season in the bag we wrapped our polling and yesterday put out our final call and we’re going to get into it today but I want to talk about accuracy we are very accurate and it’s because we’re trying to be we’re not trying to shill for Democrats and a real test of accuracy is being very close Time After Time After Time you’ve probably heard a lot of names thrown around as the most accurate pollster and sometimes that is just the function of you know a lucky cycle but we are there at the top of the rankings and we intend on being there again so we put our final call out yesterday we took a good look at all of our October data and sharpened the pencil and took a really good crunch and we have the cross tabs you’re going to absolutely want to see them but before you do since we’re talking about State numbers today as well they were sponsored by American Thinker for September and both Cycles in October were very grateful that they enabled us to go out into the field for more State polling than we’ve ever done so I would really appreciate it if you went to their website signed up for their daily newsletter and maybe gave them a follow on Twitter as well while you’re there why don’t you send a tweet their way say you’re thankful for what they do and maybe even mention that you came from Ras musim reports but here are our final National cross tabs and it’s a lot of data it’s almost all of our October data to be honest with you with people voting early more than they ever have and dropping out of the polls last couple days have just been kind of weird and mostly I trust our late September and early October polling I will also say that I think in the online panels there is some level of brigading going on and also some major 500 pound gorillas who are in there uh you know fatiguing the panel as it were but we’re used that kind of garbage and I’m very confident in these numbers if the 2024 election were between vice president kamla Harris and former president Donald Trump who would you vote for and basically 12,000 us likely voters regionally balanced Across the Nation and waited to these demographics 48% male 52% female uh yeah this one is a little bit more white to be honest with you we’ve been using 67% based on the early data it looks like minority turnout is really depressed and I’ll also say that we are still weighted Democrat plus two and it’s Trump plus three that might be a surprise to everybody who’s been following our daily numbers we’ve had Trump plus two week after week after week and it really is kind of you know 48.8 46.3 it’s really two and a half it’s on the skinny side of 2 and a half but the way the rounding works it’s Trump plus three and quite frankly I’m happy it’s like that because I do think based on the early data based on a lot of hunches and based on some stuff with the recalled vote which we can get into in a little bit I think there’s a chance that trump outperforms our national popular vote number winning among men by eight points down only three points among women listen if this holds up all of the cope you’re hearing on the Internet is that wow women are turning out big in the early voting the thing is is that they always vote early and here they aren’t even really breaking for Harris by that much Harris is up two among 18 to 39 year olds this would be incredible if it holds up Trump was winning Trump was winning among young younger voters when Biden was in the race but this is way tighter I mean just go back to 2016 and look at how strongly 18 to 39 year olds went to Hillary Clinton but a lot of those 18 to 39 year olds back then are now 40 to 64 year olds and they’re going Donald Trump by Five Points that’s a little bit narrower than it’s been but I’m happy we got a really big sample because what I see makes a lot more sense in some of the weekly polls we had 65 and older going to Harris but here they’re going to Trump by uh four points and so what you’re seeing is probably the white liberal Suburban uh higher educated individual that’s your haris supporter being spread out amongst this entire set of age brackets white voters go Trump by eight I you know we’ll see it says 30 % of the black vote going to Trump now do I think that many black voters change their minds no this is a likely voter poll and if traditionally Democrat black areas do not turn up you might get a number this high and not only that it might not even show up in the exit polling because the way they wait those things and the Hispanic vote too Trump by Five Points we’ll see really sticking my neck out on the line with this one I mean seriously I’m not doing Spanish language polls I’m not asking very specific questions that you’d want to know to get an accurate Hispanic vote like do you speak Spanish at home or are your family immigrants or whatever but still the trend is Trump’s friend year after year and it looks like he’s winning the Hispanic vote which was the voting block that Democrats planned to make their permanent super majority and Trump finishes with a slightly higher crossover Advantage than he’s had a few points of advantage over Harris and is winning by seven points among Independents again I’m not sure if the exit polling is going to be accurate here the independence are kind of a grab bag and you really could get with Trump winning this much in the independence again if liberal Independence sit it out so let’s take a look at the states this is all of our State polling we finally got all 12 cross tabs out if you had to ask me I would be more confident in my September and October 15th set a State polling but again it’s all still really good news for Trump Arizona Trump plus two Georgia Trump plus six we had plus five way back against Biden but then plus three in the middle of September Michigan’s been back and forth between a Harris plus one and a tie I’m least confident in my Michigan samples and what everybody says is that Michigan is most likely going to vote the same way as Pennsylvania and Wisconsin so we’ll see Minnesota was still Harris plus three although it did narrow a little bit Nevada Trump plus two very solidly Trump plus two but this is one of those ones where I think I’m airing to the left based on the fact that Republicans look like they’re going into election day with their own firewall which is definitely a new thing New Hampshire Harris plus one within I mean that’s a statistical tie that is a possible Trump pickup New Mexico one point to the right if Trump outperforms by a point or two he’s within the margin of error North Carolina looks safe as it should be it went to Trump by a point and a half in 2020 and when all of the national polling moves six to seven points to the right there’s no way that one random swing state moves to the left I just don’t see it Ohio I think Trump does better than this Pennsylvania Trump plus three Trump plus two I think Trump’s going to win Pennsylvania comfortably and I guess we’ll just have to wait and see about the Electoral hij Jinks we had Texas at Trump plus six I think Trump does better than that Harris plus two in Virginia within the margin of err in a possible Trump pickup and then Wisconsin wow Trump plus three and it really was I mean when I pulled it it felt like rightward movement in the State it’s in line with Pennsylvania that kind of makes sense and we’ll get into Wisconsin more in a little bit um to talk about the Senate quick we’ve had Lake trailing two to four points last couple times we’ve run this if Trump outperforms Arizona and I think it looks like he will she’s within Striking Distance um the Michigan race I think was pretty close Minnesota there’s no chance Nevada Sam Brown we had one where he was really close and one where he was down big I think it’s the same situation with Arizona I think the polls are underemphasizing Republican support and the straight ticket effect might help these people so I would kind of put Nevada and Arizona into the same camp if trump outperforms our polling significantly they could be pickups and Ohio our polling showed looks like a definite Trump pickup McCormick has been really neck and neck this entire time I think he’s the next most likely pickup on this list and I actually had Eric hobi up a point in Wisconsin so I would say just there is three Republican pickups also we had Montana that would be uh four so it looks like potentially the Baseline there is uh Republicans at 54 in the Senate now we’re going to get to some maps but before we do that I want to reiterate that these American Thinker cross Tabs are available publicly on our website so you can look and one of the things I think you’d want to be looking for besides all the rible issue questions is to go down and see who is winning in this case in Arizona we have Trump up two and then go out to see how people respond based on when they say they’re going to vote because what you’re hearing across the board especially in the Sun Belt is that Democrat turnout is down and Republicans are crushing it in the early vote and look here Trump is up 65 to 33 among people who say they vote early in person and Harris only has a slight lead in the vote by mail segment now it probably will be bigger than that but what everybody’s saying to cope is that Republicans are cannibalizing their election day vote but a lot of people say they’re still going to vote in person on election day and those people break Trump by eight points so if the Democrats going to election day down at all they’re not going to be able to dig themselves out of that hole unless they magically find more mail IM ballots so looking at the mass this is based on all of our polling and anything within one point I put as a toss up Trump wins if our State polling is too right and really we’re kind of in line with the real clear politics aggregate I do not think that’s going to be the case because I think the aggregate is being left shifted by all the same chuckleheads like Bloomberg and morning consult but let’s just take Pennsylvania out of the situation Trump still wins at 272 this is the same map but I took away the toss UPS Trump is still up 291 but Democrats have picked up 247 okay I think my State polling is to left let’s shift all of it to the right to points or let’s just say Donald Trump outperforms our polling by two points here’s the new map Trump picks up 310 he’s picked up Michigan he’s picked up New Hampshire and now Virginia is a toss up and the Democrats are down to 215 Virginia is literally tied in this scenario and New Hampshire May flip we’re going to hear about those States really early on Election Day if Virginia or New Hampshire flip nobody’s going to care about delaying the vote in Pennsylvania and I think that would be very important again the risk of violence in this country is higher than I think it’s ever been it will not be a good thing regardless of who wins if the election is dragged out and people are not confident in the results but I want to bring up another very important Point here is the 2020 polling it had Biden up seven points at this point in the race and he only won by four and a half so the polling on average missed left but here’s what I want to show you the final result was Biden plus 4.5 keep that number in your head but here are the Battleground results Biden literally squeaked it out with 03 points reported results not polling in the Battlegrounds which means that the Battlegrounds were four and a half points to the right of the national popular vote let’s look at 2016 Hillary Clinton won by 2.1 now the polling was left here too but it really tightened up at the end I mean it was really it was like Clinton plus six or seven almost this entire time so it’s like everybody at once decided to stop Shilling for Democrats it’s kind of like where we’re at now but anyways 2.1 but here are the battlegrounds Trump won by 1.7 that’s almost four points so it’s like four and a half points Four Points the state results are four points to the right of the national popular vote here is the current polling for the national popular vote it’s at tide now before we talk about any leftward polling bias and I still think there is some because morning conso and reuter zos are still in this thing that means Trump probably is going to get about four points in the Battlegrounds the polling right now says Trump’s going to get one point in the Battlegrounds and Wisconsin’s roughly tied Michigan’s got Harris up a point I think Trump is going to sweep the Battlegrounds even though my polling doesn’t say it you probably haven’t heard the race explain that way in very simple logic that kind of overlooks the error of the polls I didn’t talk about pulling error this time out I to be honest with you I think you know we have Trump plus three I think Trump’s going to outperform this tie we could have Trump winning some of the Battlegrounds by five six seven points it could be like Reagan Carter 1980 or at least Reagan Carter 1980 if you stripped Anderson out of the race and gave Carter roughly 70% of his votes you’d get Reagan up four or five points I think that’s what we might see Patrick rafini smart guy look we are seeing the makings of a Dem turnout disaster in all of Arizona Georgia North Carolina and Nevada the sun Bel it’s true none of these states are likely the pivotal ones but a clear lesson of 2016 is that if minority turnout is bad in the sun Bel it’s also bad in Philly Detroit and Milwaukee signs are not looking good for the rust Bel here’s Mark Halperin my reporting is that she is in trouble in Wisconsin this is is based on three sources two Republicans one Democrat all of whom know the state quite well and all of whom told me today they would be somewhere between surprised and shocked if kamla Harris won Wisconsin listen if Trump gets the Sun Belt she’s got to sweep the Rust Belt not looking good at all and so rich Baris says this is the Doom phase you try to suppress the vote of your opponent Democrats are doing it better the right is easy to get dooming I do think there’s some truth in that statement although I do think that people on the right are crawling over broken glass to vote right now but he’s absolutely correct what they’re trying to do is demoralize voters keep them from coming out on Election Day because depending on the state 40 to 50% of Trump’s vote is still out there and it has to show up I’m surprised we haven’t seen crazier things over the last couple days we saw them try to blame Trump for inciting violence against Liz Cheney we saw the Nazi thing we saw the p Rico joke I don’t think any of that moved the needle it’s almost like the media jumped the shark created their own Echo chamber and they’re just preaching to the choir right now and it’s kind of sad but like let’s go to CNN closing arguments oh the Diddy case interesting what do we got about Trump well we okay he’s trying to win over female voters my polling shows he’s only down three points among Women Voters oh he got frustrated with his mic stop the presses delay the vote everybody Trump got frustrated with his mic the chips act what something more rally mishaps and some immigrant said that people like her infected a Colorado City Trump said that I mean and now we got Bolton Bolton Said Trump is going to be a dictator in decare early Victory like there’s fear bait minutia what do we got about okay over here Democrats are trying to make it about abortion trying to push the Gap with male voters her Gap with male voters is way bigger than Trump’s Gap with women I’ll tell you that it doesn’t have to be this way and some pop stars this is all over the place I don’t whatever MSNBC cope take a breath 10 things you guys still have a chance preview an election night Republicans are worried about Women Voters evidence suggest they should be no I think democrats should be worried about a lack of election day voters they don’t they really don’t like Vance and again seeding The Narrative that Trump is going to overturn the election oh Elon Musk is spreading misinformation about elections this is the mouthpiece of the Harris campaign in the Democrat Party they’re G this is what they’re going to be talking about misinformation and attempts to overthrow democracy whatever in my opinion this is what the the internet’s talking about a lot of really positive cool and interesting stuff it looks like it might finally be happening and Ron Paul might be engaged in some official capacity in the Trump campaign elon’s been tweeting about it I this is serious if Elon hires Ron Paul mean meane magic might just break the world and speaking of me magic like listen this is really sad about Fred and peanuts I’m really really sorry that that happened but the internet is turning this into a meme Legend like harambe and they’re trying to get Trump to tweet about it and saying that if he tweets Valiant Renegade I love it if Trump tweets for peanut he wins New York yeah I mean massive early voting in Georgia and North Carolina abortion ban debate intensifies yeah they’re trying to make it about abortion but wow Rashida declines a Harrison endorsement there like I don’t see anything that’s oh my God man I don’t see anything that’s Doom so it looks like they’re failing on that regard the media jump the shark look Trump is going down is trending on Twitter but the number one trend on Twitter right now is Peanut fascinating so there it is folks I think Trump wins comfortably I think he has a chance of winning every one of the Battlegrounds although Michigan looks pretty murky based on my polling but again I think he’s going to outperform my state polls which means he probably sweeps the Battlegrounds and election riggers would be wise to steer clear of attempts to desperately cling on to the one or two states that Harris needs and that little thing I showed you with the national popular vote tells me again the State polling is to left so Trump could have some really serious numbers in a way that all the early data seems to acknowledge is happening right now Democrats are just not showing up in the same numbers they did four years ago and Republicans still have a massive amount of gas in the tank and listen if we’re starting to talk about Virginia and New Hampshire pickups like Trump could be in the 320s so I know a lot of people are nervous and they should be because I think the kleptocratic oligarch regime in DC is at its most desperate right now to try to prevent the Trump win there’s really not a lot of time left but what they need to do is to depress turnout on election C day so everybody should have their heads on a swivel but if you’re nervous and you got some anxiety my advice to you would be to get on Twitter and tweet about poor Fred and peanut so follow me on Twitter at markor RoR Mitchell and join the fun follow our main account at rasor Poole follow us on YouTube or Rumble if that’s your thing really love to have you there like the video while you’re at it and thanks for watching

Truly Right View: Advocating for Free Speech in the Age of Political Censorship

Introduction: What is Free Speech Today?

In a world where political discourse is dominated by big tech, cable news, and social media influencers, free speech is constantly under threat. From censorship of conservative viewpoints to the silencing of dissent on controversial issues, we are witnessing an alarming trend of restrictions on the most fundamental rights of any citizen in our Constitutional Republic: the right to speak freely.

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The Constitutional Perspective: Why Free Speech is Non-Negotiable

The First Amendment of the United States Constitution is crystal clear: “Congress shall make no law… abridging the freedom of speech.” The Founding Fathers understood the importance of free speech in preserving a free society. Without it, the ability to challenge government, expose corruption, and advocate for truth would be crushed.

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Do we not see this as a slippery slope toward authoritarianism?

Shouldn’t we, as citizens, be the ones who decide what we can or cannot hear, not a centralized body or corporation?

Social Media and Cable News: Platforms or Gatekeepers?

Social media was once hailed as the bastion of free speech. It allowed ordinary individuals to share their thoughts, advocate for causes, and hold the powerful accountable. However, over the years, major platforms like Twitter (now X), Facebook, and YouTube have become gatekeepers rather than facilitators of free expression.

Algorithms favor certain ideologies, while alternative viewpoints—especially those with a more conservative or constitutional slant—are shadow-banned, demonetized, or outright censored.

Does this not resemble the tactics of monarchies, communistic or fascist regimes that control what their citizens can see and hear?

Shouldn’t a true democracy allow the free flow of ideas, even if those ideas challenge the status quo?

Social Media Influencers: Fighters for Freedom or Puppets of Censorship?

Many social media influencers, especially those aligned with constitutional values, have become modern-day warriors for free speech. Yet, they face intense backlash, censorship, and de-platforming for voicing opinions that challenge globalist or left-leaning narratives.

How many times have we seen influential voices banned simply for questioning government policies, election results, or health mandates?

Isn’t it concerning that only a select group of elites can decide what is “acceptable” discourse?

While some influencers fall in line with these restrictive policies, others have emerged as champions for free speech, using their platforms to resist censorship and uphold constitutional rights. The question is: Will we support these voices, or will we allow them to be drowned out by corporate and governmental censorship?

The Dangers of Socialism, Communism, and Fascism: A Threat to Free Speech

At the heart of socialism, communism, and fascism lies a common tactic—control over speech. These ideologies have historically sought to suppress dissent, limit expression, and create a monolithic narrative that favors those in power.

Look no further than authoritarian regimes past and present, where dissenters are imprisoned, media is state-controlled, and free speech is criminalized. Can we really ignore the striking similarities between these oppressive ideologies and the current state of political discourse in America?

Is the suppression of speech today not a precursor to more draconian measures tomorrow?

Should we not fight to preserve the right to freely express political, social, and economic ideas?

The Truly Right View: Defending Freedom in the Digital Age

At Truly Right View, we believe in the unwavering defense of free speech as enshrined in the U.S. Constitution. We reject the encroaching influences of socialism, communism, fascism, and any form of dictatorship that seeks to undermine this fundamental right.

Our platform is dedicated to bringing you uncensored news, analysis, and commentary from a truly constitutional perspective. We provide a space where voices that have been silenced or marginalized can be heard, and where you—the citizen—can engage in the free exchange of ideas.

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